November market commentary

Introduction

Sluggish growth and high inflation have stubbornly persisted across much of the globe in recent months, and September was no different.

But some major economies are performing better than others as they grapple with global economic headwinds, and emerging markets in Asia are bucking the prevailing trend by enjoying strong rates of growth.

As always, let’s take a look at the details…

UK

The UK economy shrank by 0.5% in July, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This was worse than many analysts had been predicting, and was driven by factors including ongoing industrial action and poor weather.

However, there was some good news to be found elsewhere, as inflation fell from 6.8% in July to 6.7% in August. This was the third consecutive month in which inflation has come down.

Nevertheless, a new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests there is no room for complacency, as it warned prices will rise faster in the UK this year than in any other advanced economy.

The OECD predicts that inflation will average at 7.2% in 2023, a higher rate than in the likes of the US, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada.

August’s surprise fall in inflation influenced the Bank of England’s unexpected decision to keep interest rates on hold at 5.2%, following 14 consecutive rate hikes.

Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, said there were “increasing signs” that higher rates were harming the UK economy, an observation borne out by recent house price figures.

According to Nationwide, property values in August 2023 were 5.3% lower than they had been 12 months earlier. This was the biggest year-on-year decline since 2009 and was attributed in part to higher borrowing costs.

Weak economic growth was not reflected in the latest wage figures, which revealed total earnings in the three months to July 2023 were 8.5% higher than they had been a year earlier.

Similarly, August saw a surge in retail sales, according to the British Retail Consortium and KPMG, as sales on non-food items rose to their highest level since February.

The retail sector recently took a knock with the collapse of high-street retailer Wilko. However, it has now been confirmed that Poundland owner Pepco Group will take on the leases at up to 71 Wilko stores, with Wilko staff being given priority when applying for jobs at these outlets.

Elsewhere in the retail sector, Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group is reportedly in discussions about selling its Missguided clothing brand to fast fashion company Shein, just a year after purchasing the brand for £20m.

There was a big development in the UK’s manufacturing industry, as German car company BMW confirmed it is to begin production of two new electric Mini cars at its factory in Oxford. About £600m is to be spent on updating its plant in Cowley in order for production to begin in 2026.

September was a turbulent month for the UK’s finance sector, with the state-owned British Business Bank reporting an annual pre-tax loss of more than £147m. This, it said, was because a “challenging economic environment” led to the valuation of businesses it has invested in falling.

Meanwhile, the ongoing controversy over the closure of former UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s Coutts account rumbled on, with the Financial Conduct Authority saying it has not found any evidence that politicians’ bank accounts are being closed because of the views they hold.

The London Stock Exchange was recently dealt a blow when chip designer Arm Holdings opted to list its shares in the US rather than the UK. The company’s market value soared to £48.3bn upon its return to the stock market as investors snapped up shares.

The pound ended August up 0.2% against the dollar, and on the financial markets, the FTSE-100 Index ended the month at 7,648 points, up 2.46% on August.

Ukraine

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the UN General Assembly in New York in September, in which he called on the world to unite behind his country in the face of the ongoing Russian invasion.

He also visited Canada during his latest round of international diplomacy, which comes at a time when discussions of “war fatigue” are growing in many of the nations that have, thus far, backed Ukraine, such as Poland.

In a reflection of its continued solidarity, the US has agreed a £265m military package with Ukraine, although this itself came after a disagreement in Congress about how much money it was willing to spend.

Europe

September saw the European Central Bank raise eurozone interest rates for the tenth time in a row from 3.75% to 4%. The move, which was taken in response to continuing high inflation, takes interest rates to a record high.

Germany continues to struggle in the face of the weak global economy and inflationary pressures, as it slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter of 2023. The OECD believes Germany will be the only G20 economy apart from Argentina to see its economy shrink this year.

Unsurprisingly, the gloomy environment is having an impact on business sentiment, which fell for the fifth month in succession during September, according to the Ifo institute.

Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist and head of macro research EMEA at Goldman Sachs, believes Germany’s problems are down to a number of factors, such as high energy costs, weak growth in China following the easing of Covid restrictions and continuing challenges in the manufacturing sector.

Speaking to CNBC, he said: “It’s … not a deep recession but it’s obviously been more hit by obvious headwinds.”

The German Bundesbank agrees that Germany’s reliance on China is partly behind its current problems, and said this is one reason why its “business model is in danger”.

In France, supermarket chain Carrefour has taken the unusual step of naming and shaming products where packet contents are getting smaller while prices are going up.

The company is putting stickers on the shelves of offending products, which include Vienetta ice cream and Lipton Ice Tea, to warn customers of “shrinkflation” and letting them know if the packaging is smaller or the contents are lighter.

Carrefour hopes this strategy will give companies an incentive to keep the prices of their products down. Director of Client Communications Stefen Bompais said: “Obviously, the aim in stigmatising these products is to be able to tell manufacturers to rethink their pricing policy.”

September also saw an interesting development as the UK’s opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. The meeting, which was described as “very constructive and positive”, comes as Sir Keir’s Labour Party is riding high in the opinion polls at home and he is aiming to position his party as a government in waiting.

On the financial markets, pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk, manufacturer of weight loss drug Wegovy, has become Europe’s most valuable company, achieving a stock market valuation of £339n at the close of trading on Monday 4th September.

On the financial markets, Germany’s DAX index fell by 2.65% in September to end the month at 15,508 points. Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 index fell by 2.35% to end at 7,200 points.

US

Gross domestic product in the US grew by 2.1% in the second quarter of 2023. This was thanks in part to increased consumer spending, as well as an increase in state, local and federal government spending.

Speaking to MSNBC’s Morning Joe programme, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: “We’re investing in America in ways we haven’t seen for decades.”

However, she acknowledged that there is a “disconnect” between how the economy is performing and how the American public feel about how it has been handled by President Joe Biden.

A poll of registered voters by the Wall Street Journal revealed three-fifths of people disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, while nearly two-thirds don’t like how he has handled inflation, which rose from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August.

The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, kept its key interest rate on hold at 5.25% to 5.5%, as it aims to bring inflation under control.

Ms Yellen said it will “take some time” before people feel more positive around the economy and feel the effects of the Biden administration’s legislation and policies.

The jobs market is one bright spot in the US economy right now, with official figures showing that employers added 187,000 jobs in August – the same number as in July. President Biden hailed the figures, saying the US is “now in one of the strongest job-creating periods in our history”.

“Some experts said to get inflation under control, we needed higher unemployment and lower wages, but I’ve never thought that was the problem,” President Biden added.

One factor that has been putting the brakes on economic growth in recent months is industrial action in various sectors, including the automotive industry, where members of United Auto Workers have withdrawn labour.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes the immediate impact of the auto workers strike will be “limited”, but said “that will change if the strike broadens and is prolonged”.

Hollywood writers, meanwhile, have ended their strike after almost five months, after the Writers Guild of America reached a tentative agreement with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers on issues such as pay and the use of artificial intelligence.

While this means writers are free to return to work, many productions will still be unable to resume, as the Screen Actors Guild remains on strike and no deal has yet been struck.

In the tech sector, the ongoing drama surrounding X, formerly known as Twitter, continued, when owner Elon Musk suggested that users may soon be charged each month to use the platform. Meanwhile, Apple’s share valuation took a hit after reports that government workers in China were banned from using iPhones.

On the financial markets, the Dow Jones fell by 2.96% to end the month at 33,821, while the more broadly-based S&P 500 index fell by 4.40% to end at 4,299.

Far East

China’s economic recovery remained sluggish, which was reflected in a fourth consecutive monthly fall in exports. According to official figures, exports in August 2023 were 8.8% down on the previous year, while imports fell by 7.3%.

Nevertheless, a poll of 78 economists by Bloomberg suggested that China will meet its economic growth target of 5% this year.

One major drag in the Chinese economy has been the crisis-hit property market. The problems at Chinese property giant Evergrande continued throughout September, as shares in the company were suspended after its chairman was reportedly placed under police surveillance. This came in the wake of the company filing for bankruptcy protection in the US, after it defaulted on its debts two years ago.

Another major Chinese property developer – Country Garden – saw a surge in its share values after securing an extension to a key debt payment deadline. This came after the company reported a £5.2bn loss for the first half of 2023, which it described as an “unsatisfactory performance”.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government’s crackdown on corruption in the financial sector continued with the imprisonment of Wang Bin, the former chairman of China Life Insurance. Mr Wang was found guilty of taking £35.7m in bribes earlier this year.

In Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that a new economic stimulus package designed to ease the impact of inflation will be put together in October. Mr Kishida has instructed his cabinet to also devise measures that could help to increase wages, although no indication of the possible size and scale of the package has yet been disclosed.

This comes as the Japanese government aims to discourage investors from trying to sell off the yen. Mr Kishisa said: “It’s important for currencies to move stably reflecting fundamentals. Excessive volatility is undesirable.”

There was more positive news for Japan’s space programme, after the country successfully launched a rocket with a lunar lander, in preparation for a planned moon landing in February next year.

India recently became only the fourth country to successfully land a spacecraft on the moon’s surface, after the US, Russia and China, and Japan is bidding to become the fifth.

South Korea, meanwhile, has been stepping up its efforts to increase its global influence, with President Yoon Suk Yeol spending five days in the US engaged in talks on foreign policy. His trip also included a keynote address at the UN General Assembly in New York.

This came as the country continued its bid to host the 2030 World Expo, a global showcase of cultural, commercial and technological accomplishments, in Busan.

On the financial markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by 3.65% to end August at 17,809. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei index slumped by 1.15% to 31,857. China’s Shanghai Composite index fell by 0.81% to 3,110 and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index went down by 1.92% to 2,249.

Emerging Markets

India continued to enjoy strong growth, with official figures showing its economy expanded by 7.8% between April and June 2023 year-on-year. This was up from 6.1% in the previous quarter.

V. Anantha Nageswaran, India’s Chief Economic Adviser, is therefore confident the country is still on course to achieve 6.5% growth this year, saying that “growth prospects appear bright”.

This sense of optimism was bolstered by new estimates from the OECD, which raised its gross projection for the 2023-24 financial year from 6% to 6.3%.

According to the OECD, India’s strong performance is likely to help Asia drive “a disproportionate share of global growth in 2023-24”, despite the “weaker than expected” recovery in China.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is similarly confident, telling the Business Standard newspaper that India is likely to achieve its growth target of 10.5% this fiscal year.

Global trade will be a key factor that supports India’s economic growth in the coming growth, and talks over a possible trade deal with the UK have been ongoing in recent months.

India recently hosted the latest G20 summit, during which UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed “we’re not there yet” regarding a possible deal.

Brazil is another emerging market that is bucking the wider global trend, with the Central Bank recording stronger than expected growth in 2023. The country’s finance ministry has also raised its GDP growth projection for 2023 from 2.5% to 3.2%.

This was driven partly by a strong performance in the agriculture and service industries, while industrial output also exceeded expectations.

In sanction-hit Russia, efforts to bolster international support amid the ongoing war in Ukraine continued.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese diplomat Wang Yi in Moscow, a move which reinforced the view among critics of China that Beijing indirectly backs the invasion. President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, met with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un, where they discussed possible military cooperation.

On the financial markets, India’s BSE Sensex index rose by 0.67% to end at 65,828 points. Russia’s MOEX index fell by 2.90% to close at 3,118 points, while Brazil’s Bovespa index ended the month at 116,603 points.

And Finally…

You might have thought aliens had finally landed on earth in recent weeks, but as ever, proof that extraterrestrials are walking among us proved elusive.

Mummified remains discovered in the city of Cusco, Peru were displayed in Mexico recently, but UFO enthusiasts became convinced they had stumbled across the body of an alien lifeform.

However, Mexican doctors disappointed the alien hunters by insisting the two alleged extraterrestrial corpses each belonged to a single skeleton.

But this wasn’t the only would-be close encounter to hit the headlines, as a family in Las Vegas have spoken out about apparently seeing two ten-foot tall aliens in their back garden.

In an interview with Inside Edition, dad Bobby and 16-year-old Angel both presented drawings of the beings they claimed to see. But curiously, the two images didn’t actually look much like each other, so who knows what they actually did or didn’t see…?

Investing is an uncertain pursuit, as you have to carefully navigate an ever-changing financial climate.

Perhaps the only certainty is that the value of your investments will go up as well as down, so it’s really important that you allocate your assets carefully to help you stay on course.

So what key issues should you be considering when you’re making these crucial decisions?

Exposure to risk

If your portfolio is based around only a few asset classes, you could lose large sums of money if any of these experience a downturn.

It’s therefore really important to diversify your portfolio across many different asset classes, so you can limit your exposure to risk in the event of a downturn and preserve your capital even during the most challenging times.

Maximising your returns

You can achieve higher returns if you optimise your portfolio around the best performing options, so you’re able to take advantage of growth in certain markets and move away from weaker alternatives.

Make sure your portfolio matches your goals

It’s important that your investment portfolio reflects your wider financial objectives. Perhaps you want to send your child to private school or university, or maybe you’re looking to buy a second home or save up for retirement.

By thinking about the spread of your assets through this lens, you can build a portfolio that helps you work towards and achieve your specific objectives.

Adapting as circumstances change

Your investment portfolio doesn’t operate in a vacuum. In fact, it can be affected by countless factors way beyond your control, from economic shifts to political upheaval at home and abroad.

With that in mind, it’s really important to be flexible and adjust your portfolio when it’s appropriate to do so.

However, it’s crucial that you don’t panic in the face of market movements, as making impulsive decisions could backfire on you. Think carefully and strategically about adjusting your asset allocation and keep a firm eye on the long-term, and stay informed so you can respond to both opportunities and risks in the right way.

Your age

If you’re five years away from retirement, you might have a different appetite for risk than someone who’s forty years off stopping work.

So if you’re a younger investor, you can probably afford to favour higher-risk, higher-reward assets such as stocks, whereas an older person might prefer safer alternatives.

Creating and managing a lucrative investment portfolio can seem a daunting task, particularly if you’re new to investing.

We’re here to guide you throughout the entire process, so please get in touch with our team of friendly, specialist financial planners.

We’ll be happy to answer any questions you have, so you can get started on this exciting and potentially lucrative journey.

Sources

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/press-releases/2023/lloyds-bank-2023/half-of-brits-intimidated-by-investing-with-thirty-eight-per-cent-baffled-by-financial-jargon.html

Introduction

Economic growth remained subdued at best in many major markets throughout May, as high inflation continued to affect households and businesses across the world and hit confidence.

But significantly, some emerging markets such as India have bucked this trend and seen impressive rates of growth.

As always, let’s take a closer look at the details to find out more about what’s been happening over the last month…

UK

The UK saw weak economic growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023, with output hit by factors including poor weather and industrial action. Although the economy remains smaller than it was pre-pandemic, the Bank of England is confident about its prospects and believes the UK will avoid slipping into recession this year.

The International Monetary Fund also believes the country will not see a recession, and upgraded its growth forecast for 2023 from 0.3% to 0.4% However, it warned that inflation is still “stubbornly high” and that interest rates will need to remain high if it is to come down. According to official figures, the UK inflation rate fell from 10.1% in March to 8.7% in April, which is the first time it has fallen below 10% since last August.

Meanwhile, the number of people on UK employers’ payrolls fell by 136,000 between March and April. This was the first drop since February 2021 – and suggests that the labour market is now feeling the impact of subdued economic growth. By contrast, house prices in the UK rose by 0.5% in April, according to Nationwide, following seven consecutive monthly declines, raising hopes of a slight recovery in the housing market over the coming months.

It was a mixed picture among UK businesses, with bakery chain Greggs reporting a 17% increase in sales year-on-year. By contrast, online fashion retailer Asos saw a 10% drop in sales during the six months to the end of February year-on-year, and posted a loss of more than £87m. BT, meanwhile, announced it was seeking to cut costs by cutting up to 55,000 jobs over the next few years, with many outgoing customer services staff being replaced by artificial intelligence.

Unsurprisingly, oil and gas companies continued to perform strongly, with Shell reporting profits of £7.6bn in the first quarter of 2023, and BP seeing profits of £4bn over the same period. This was despite energy prices coming down slightly in recent months.

The impact of Brexit continued to loom large in the business community, with carmarker Stellantis warning it may have to close factories in the UK if the government doesn’t negotiate a new deal with the EU. The company, which owns Fiat, Citroen, Peugeot and Vauxhall, said that under the current deal, it would face tariffs of 10% on exports to the EU from next year.

Despite ongoing concerns over the effects of Brexit on the economy, there was good news for the UK capital when London came top of Brand Finance’s new City Index, making it the best city brand in the world.

Although London is clearly well regarded around the globe, concerns have been raised about businesses choosing to list in the US rather than the UK. British technology firm Arm, for example, recently filed to list its shares in the US rather than London. In response to these worries, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) confirmed plans to revise and simplify listing rules to encourage more companies to list shares on UK stock markets.

The pound ended May down 0.3% against the dollar, and on the financial markets, the FTSE-100 Index ended the month at 7,458 points, down 5.23% on April.

Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with leaders in Paris, London, Rome and Berlin in an effort to secure further military support for Ukraine. While they all committed to supplying extra weapons and equipment, they have so far ruled out sending Eurofighter jets to combat Russian forces.

May also saw the UK host the Eurovision Song Contest on Ukraine’s behalf, as the ongoing war meant it was impossible for last year’s winner to stage the competition itself. The event was another significant show of international support for Ukraine, but the hometown of Ukraine’s Eurovision act was struck by Russian missiles shortly before they were due to perform.

Europe

The European Commission revised its growth forecasts for EU members upwards, predicting that its 27 nations will see average growth of 1% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024. Eurozone members, meanwhile, are expected to see growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% next year.

However, these average figures hide a number of issues in individual member states. For example, the German economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, which sent the country into recession following a 0.5% contraction in the previous three months.

The French government announced a significant new measure to tackle climate change during May, banning domestic short-haul flights if train alternatives that take under two-and-a-half hours are available.

Meanwhile, the European Union has sought to prepare for climate change-related forest fires by doubling its supply of aircraft that can tackle blazes. Janez Lenarčič, the EU’s Commissioner for Crisis Management, said 2023 has already been “much drier than average” in places such as Spain, Portugal and the south of France, and that its 28 aircraft will be ready to act in what is expected to be a “busy, busy summer”.

In the technology sector, the clash between policymakers and artificial intelligence developers took a new turn, when OpenAI boss Sam Altman backed down on a threat to leave the European Union. Mr Altman had said he would leave the trading bloc if it imposed tough regulations on the AI market. According to the European Commission, agreement among member states on laws governing AI is likely to be reached this year, but it could be up to two years until these rules come into effect.

EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton has announced that social media giant Twitter has pulled out of its voluntary code to tackle disinformation, although the company itself has made no official comment.

On the financial markets, Germany’s DAX index fell by 1.61% in May to end the month at 15,665 points. Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 index fell by 5.24% to end at 7,099 points.

US

The US government has faced the very real prospect of running out of money and borrowing to keep funding essential operations. As a result, President Joe Biden has been working to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, which has now been approved by the House of Representatives.

This comes amid a period of sluggish economic growth in the US, as GDP grew by just 1.3% between January and March 2023, when compared with the same period of the previous year. Inflation, meanwhile, dropped from 5% in the year to March to 4.9% in the year to April. That means inflation has slowed for ten months in succession.

The US Federal Reserve has been seeking to control inflation by raising interest rates, and at the start of May, its key interest rate was increased by 0.25%, taking the benchmark rate to between 5% and 5.25%. Despite the rising cost of borrowing, employers continued to create new jobs, with 253,000 jobs being added in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%.

Ongoing woes in the banking sector continued throughout May, with shares in PacWest and Western Alliance falling after recent banking failures led to a loss of confidence in sections of the market. The US Treasury Department has sought to ease concerns by insisting that the banking system has “substantial liquidity” and “deposit flows are stable”.

Elsewhere in the banking industry, First Republic was bought by JP Morgan Chase for $10.6bn after it was closed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was appointed as receiver. It has subsequently been reported that about 1,000 jobs at First Republic will be cut following the takeover. Jobs are also expected to be lost in Silicon Valley Bank’s US Operations following its takeover by First Citizens.

In the technology sector, Apple saw a 3% drop in revenue during the first three months of 2023, when compared with the same quarter of 2022. That means sales at the tech giant have fallen for two consecutive quarters.

There was better news for the travel industry, with the White House confirming that international air travellers no longer have to show proof that they’ve received a Covid-19 vaccination.

On the financial markets, the Dow Jones fell by 3.89% to end the month at 32,771, while the more broadly-based S&P 500 index went up by 0.09% to end at 4,173.

Far East

China’s economic recovery following the end of Covid restrictions took a blow during May when its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.8 in May, down from 49.2 in April. Any figure below 50 indicates contraction and means factory activity is now at its lowest level in five months.

However, China’s automotive industry was a relative bright spot for the economy, with official figures showing the number of car exports in the first quarter of 2023 was 58% higher than it had been a year earlier. 1.07m vehicles were exported from China between January and March, compared with 954,185 from Japan.

China also saw an upturn in domestic tourism, with people making 274m trips within the country during its five-day May Day holiday period. That’s nearly a fifth up on the number recorded in 2019.

The tourism industry received a further boost in May with the first commercial flight of the C919 plane. The aircraft, China’s first domestically-manufactured large passenger jet, was built by the Commercial Aviation Corporation of China and flew from Shanghai to Beijing on its maiden flight.

It was a different story at Chinese fast fashion brand Shein, as Republican and Democrat lawmakers in the US have called for the company to be investigated over claims that some of its clothes are made by Uyghur forced labour. Shein has insisted it has “zero tolerance” for forced labour, but the US lawmakers insist they have heard “credible allegations” against the firm.

Growing tensions between China and the US were also laid bare when China’s cyberspace regulator said that products made by US memory chip maker Micron Technology pose a serious national security risk. Products made by Micron will now be banned from major infrastructure projects being carried out in China.

Tesla chief executive Elon Musk visited China at the end of May for the first time in more than three years, and met with Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Industry Minister Jin Zhuanglong. China’s Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Mr Musk is seeking to expand Tesla’s presence in the country, which is the company’s biggest market outside the US.

China is not alone in seeing a slump in factory output, as industrial production in Japan fell by 0.4% in April, when compared with the previous month. This was a disappointing figure, as analysts had expected to see a rise in output of about 1.4%.

All eyes were on Japan during May when it hosted the G7 summit, where world leaders met to discuss issues such as further sanctions against Russia. The summit also saw Japan sign a renewed science and technology deal with the UK, which will see it deepen their relationship in this area.

The scale of attacks by North Korean hackers and ransomware users was highlighted in a new report by Elliptic, commissioned by Nikkei, which revealed that Asian nations account for nearly two-thirds of losses in these attacks. Japan alone accounted for 30% of the world total of over $2.3bn in 2022, seeing losses of $721m throughout the year.

In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol had meetings with several international dignitaries in his diary. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with him to discuss boosting security ties and how to manage relations amid growing tensions between the US and China.

The President also met with European Council President Charles Michen and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during the 10th EU-Republic of Korea summit in Seoul. This marked the 60th anniversary of EU-South Korea diplomatic relations, where they discussed issues such trade, sustainable development and supporting Ukraine.

On the financial markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by 8.35% to end May at 18,234. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei index rose by 7.04% to 30,887. China’s Shanghai Composite index fell by 3.57% to 3,204 and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose 4.66% to 2,357.

Emerging Markets

India’s economy accelerated to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2023, which means the country is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This is up from 4.4% in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of India has suggested this impressive rate of growth might be hard to sustain, due to “slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility”.

May also saw Indian budget airline Go First file for bankruptcy. This was despite domestic air traffic in the country hitting a record high in the previous month, with 456,082 passengers flying on April 30th. Writing on Twitter, Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said: “The skyrocketing domestic passenger traffic post-Covid is a reflection of India’s high growth.” Domestic airlines carried more than 37.5m passengers in the first quarter of 2023 – up 51.7% on the same period of 2022.

India’s burgeoning status as a technology hotspot hit the brakes slightly, as the International Data Corporation (IDC) reported that although 31m smartphones were shipped in India between January and March this year, this was 16% lower than in the same period of 2022. This was also the lowest first-quarter figure for four years, and was blamed partly on uncertainty over the economic outlook.

In sanction-hit Russia, the economy contracted by almost 2% in the first quarter of 2023 year-on-year. Match Group, owner of dating apps Hinge and Tinder, is the latest company to pull out of Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, and is aiming to have completely withdrawn from this market by the end of June.

Meanwhile, concerns about Russia’s revenues from oil and gas have been raised by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, but this was downplayed by President Vladimir Putin, who attributed lower revenues to “voluntary cuts” in oil production, and said the situation was “absolutely stable”.

In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with his counterparts from Colombia, Bolivia, Argentina and Chile at the South American Summit at Itamaraty Palace in Brasilia. The visit of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was particularly notable, as he had been banned by former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in 2019. “What’s important about Maduro coming here is that it’s the beginning of Maduro’s return,” President Lula said.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian government has declared a six-month animal health emergency following outbreaks of avian flu in Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo.

On the financial markets, India’s BSE Sensex index rose by 2.47% to end at 62,622 points. Russia’s MOEX index rose by 3.05% to close at 2,715 points, while Brazil’s Bovespa index ended the month at 108,564 points.

And Finally…

We’re used to seeing leaves and crisp packets flying around during strong winds, but during one particularly bad storm in Turkey, a sofa was blown off the balcony of a block of flats. The furniture was caught on camera flying through the sky for several seconds before crashing to the ground.

Another neighbourhood that saw disruption recently was Framlingham in Suffolk, where locals complained about the noise being made by a cockerel called Rory. Owner Julie Smith, who has been ordered to keep the noise down, is angry that “someone obviously has a problem with him”, as she claims that her neighbours have told her they can’t hear Rory if they shut their windows.

In other animal news, police in Colorado recently pulled over a speeding driver, but rather than accept his punishment, the motorist tried to switch places with…his dog! Needless to say, officers weren’t fooled and he was detained for driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs.

Introduction 

Where did we leave the soap opera that is British politics? At the end of September, Liz Truss was the Prime Minister, and Kwasi Kwarteng was her Chancellor. As we reported last month, Kwarteng presented his ‘fiscal statement’ on Friday 23rd September. 

Three weeks later, he was gone and Liz Truss had to endure the most public of humiliations as new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt fed her ‘plan for growth’, policy after policy, into the parliamentary shredder. Eleven days later, Truss offered her own resignation, replaced by Rishi Sunak, the man she had defeated in the race to succeed Boris Johnson. The shortest serving PM on record was replaced by the youngest for over a century, meaning that in 2022, the UK has had four different Chancellors and three Prime Ministers. 

There was, though, far more to the news than the UK – neither was it the only country to have a new leader. 

As we report below, October brought us the Communist Party Congress in Beijing – and confirmation that Xi Jinping is effectively ruler of China for life. The war in Ukraine continued – and the month ended with Russia pulling out of the grain deal agreed earlier this year, sparking fears of a threat to the world’s food supply. 

And as Russia gave the appearance of mobilising nuclear weapons, American President Joe Biden called it, “the most dangerous time since [the Cuban missile crisis of] 1962”. Finland indicated that it would be willing to host nuclear weapons on its border with Russia. 

How did the world’s stock markets react to all the news? It was a long way from the doom and gloom that might have been expected. All but two of the markets we cover in the Bulletin made gains in October: shares in China and Hong Kong, however, did not react well to Xi Jinping’s third term. As we report below, there are real fears that he will put political ideology, and his zero Covid policy, ahead of economic growth. 

As always, let us look at all the news and its impact on the stock markets we cover in the Bulletin. 

UK 

Many of the notes we made in the early part of the month – ‘Kwarteng to bring forward debt plan from November 23rd – were subsequently rendered irrelevant by the events mentioned above. The medium term fiscal statement, at one time due to be delivered on October 31st, has now been pushed back to Thursday November 17th and upgraded to a full Autumn Statement. 

The statement – which will come with forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility – is expected to detail billions of pounds worth of public spending cuts in an attempt to reassure the markets about the stability of the UK economy. The new Chancellor has said he is willing to take ‘politically embarrassing’ decisions. 

The beginning of October was turbulent, to say the least. Kwasi Kwarteng swiftly U-turned on his decision to scrap the 45p tax rate, saying it was a ‘distraction’. A day later, he was forced to bring forward his debt cutting plan from November 23rd. Small wonder that ratings agency Fitch downgraded its outlook for UK government debt from ‘stable’ to ‘negative,’ which put further pressure on the pound. 

Kwarteng’s position had become untenable and, as we reported in the introduction, the Prime Minister – with a new Chancellor calling the shots and the Bank of England supporting the pound – was forced to undergo a public humiliation which wouldn’t have looked out of place on Game of Thrones. 

Even away from politics, good news was hard to find in October. Figures for August showed that the economy had unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, leading to fears of a recession. September saw inflation at 10.1% – back to a 40-year high – as the BBC reported that people ‘are delaying turning their heating on’. The International Monetary Fund added to the gloom, saying that it expected inflation in the UK to peak at 11.3% before the end of the year. 

Clearly the rising prices are impacting business, with City AM firstly reporting that company insolvencies in the second quarter hit their highest level since 2009, and a few days later suggesting that ’50,000 small businesses in London could collapse’. While that last headline might seem a shade alarmist, there is no doubt that the coming year will be a very challenging one for our clients who own and run SMEs. 

What about jobs in general and the nation’s high street? The month got off to a bad start with Tesco reporting first half profits sharply down on last year. The figure of £413m was 64% down on the first six months of 2021, as the supermarket chain warned that ‘shoppers are watching every penny’.

A day later, City AM was reporting that high street spending had ‘slumped’, with the rate of footfall increase post-Covid slowing sharply, with ‘shoppers cutting back on shopping sprees’. The counter-argument to that, of course, is that shoppers simply went online – but as we will see in the US section, Amazon also reported disappointing figures. 

There were two pinpoints of light at the end of the tunnel. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest figure recorded for 50 years. And we may finally be returning to the office, at least in London. Restaurant chain Itsu declared that the capital was ‘back in business’, with increasing numbers of customers being served from Monday to Friday. 

And what many of our clients have waited so long for might soon be here. ‘Savers rates finally on the move’ reported the BBC. It is, of course, the flipside of the recent higher mortgage rates, but it appears that there is finally some real competition emerging in the savings market. ‘Experts say banks and building societies are leapfrogging each other on best buy tables,’ said the story – music to the ears of many of our clients. 

It is impossible, though, to leave the UK section anywhere other than back with the new Prime Minister and Chancellor. For the time being, their appointment seems to have calmed the markets, with both the pound and the FTSE ultimately making gains in October. Sunak ‘not perfect but the right choice for now’ was how one commentator put it, and that appears to be the view of the markets. Although UK Government debt continues to rise, the cost of servicing it is, at least for now, coming down. 

The FTSE-100 index of leading shares was up by 3% to close the month at 7,095. The pound strengthened by a similar percentage against the dollar, and ended October trading at $1.1490. 

Ukraine 

October began with the US committing a further $625m (£538m) in defence aid to Ukraine following a telephone conversation between Presidents Zelenskyy and Biden. This takes the total US spend to date to $16.8bn (£14.5bn) – a figure which has not gone down well with some of the country’s more right-wing commentators. 

The month’s first significant event in the conflict came a few days later when a huge blast destroyed sections of a bridge leading to Crimea – both strategically important and a symbol of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. 

Retaliatory strikes across Ukraine quickly followed and – still evidently not satisfied with progress – in mid-month, Putin sacked two of his senior military commanders and appointed General Sergey Surovikin to lead the next phase of the conflict. Surovikin is apparently known as ‘General Armageddon’, which may give some clue to future Russian tactics. 

Ukraine has huge, untapped gas supplies in the Dnipro-Donets basin, and held talks with American drillers about pumping this gas to Europe, reducing the region’s dependence on Russian gas – and presumably making Europe more willing to supply Ukraine with the weapons it now needs. 

October saw China order all its citizens to leave Ukraine. Whether this was in response to the escalation of Russia’s shelling following the attack on the bridge, or whether China knows of Putin’s further plans, is impossible to say. What we can say is that the war has now lasted for eight months, and there is no end – either military or diplomatic – in sight. 

The month ended with another twist to the downward spiral as Russia suspended its participation in the grain deal struck in the summer. This followed what it described as a ‘massive’ drone attack on its Black Sea fleet, and prompted the ominous Sunday Telegraph headline, ‘Food prices to surge after Putin chokes grain supply.’ 

Europe 

While the debate about a windfall tax on energy firms rages on in the UK, the EU has made its mind up. 

The 27 member bloc has confirmed it will impose a windfall tax on energy companies’ profits, aiming to raise funds to provide relief for families and businesses across the continent. The measures include a levy on fossil fuel companies’ surplus profits made in 2022 or 2023, and another levy on excess revenues low-cost producers make from the rising electricity costs. 

At the same time, Sweden all but accepted that it will face power shortages this winter. It was hit by a dry and relatively windless summer, meaning less energy was generated from renewables: in addition the country’s nuclear power plants are not yet ready to supply consumers. 

The Swedish prosecution authority declared the area around the ruptured Nord Stream pipelines a ‘crime scene’, banning divers and vessels from being within 5.8 miles of the leaks. 

There were more twists in the energy tale in the middle of the month, when the biggest oil refinery in Europe, Shell’s Pernis in the Netherlands, suffered what was described as a ‘malfunction’. This came on top of the pressure on fuel supplies caused by a wave of strikes in France. 

In company news, Porsche overtook Volkswagen to become Europe’s most valuable car maker, with shares surging to €93 (£80) before stabilising at around €91 (£78), to give the company a valuation of €84bn (£72bn) and take it past Volkswagen. 

Long time readers of this Bulletin will remember the travails of Deutsche Bank. Mired in scandals and seemingly-endless losses it was long seen as the ‘sick man’ of the global banking sector, but a turnaround under Christian Sewing has just seen the bank record its ninth successive quarterly profit, making €1.12bn (£961m) in the three months to September, up from €194m (£166m) in the same period last year. 

Europe’s stock markets took their cue from Porsche and Deutsche Bank rather than continuing worries about energy, with both the German and French markets rising by 9% in the month. They closed October at 13,254 and 6,267 respectively. 

US 

For much of this year, we have been reporting on Elon Musk’s on/off pursuit of the social media platform Twitter. The deal was finally concluded with the world’s richest man paying $44bn (£38bn) for the company, walking into the headquarters building carrying a sink and promptly cutting a swathe through the senior management team. 

Quite what Musk’s plans are for the company remain to be seen: there is talk that he wants to create a ‘super-app’ that will take care of every aspect of our lives, much like some of the apps in the Far East. You suspect we won’t have long to wait to find out…

Staying with Elon Musk, October was a good month for Tesla. A few days after the company announced that it would deliver its first trucks in December – Pepsi has apparently ordered 100 – came the news that it had sold 83,135 China-made vehicles in September. That was a new record, and up 8% on August, according to figures from the China Passenger Car Association. 

If October was a good month for Tesla, it was emphatically not a good month for some of the tech giants, who were badly hit by the slowdown in the economy and the consequent caution on the part of advertisers. Both Google and Microsoft reported slowing sales growth – Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube reported sales up just 6% in the third quarter – while Facebook shares slumped to a six-year low. 

The chill wind also blew through Amazon: analysts were disappointed with the 3rd quarter figures, as revenue growth slowed to 27% from the 33% recorded in the second quarter. The company said it expected the challenges of inflation, rising fuel costs and weaker demand to persist ‘through the holiday quarter’. CEO Brian Olsavsky said the company ‘will be looking at our cost structure and areas where we can save money’. The net result of all this was a fall of nearly 20% in the company’s shares, wiping $202bn (£174bn) off the company’s value. 

In the wider US economy, jobs growth slowed to 263,000 new jobs in September – the lowest figure since April 2021 – as the fight against inflation continued. Analysts continue to expect further rises in US interest rates. 

We have mentioned above the EU’s decision to impose a windfall tax on energy companies. How they must wish they could get their hands on Exxon Mobil: the company – headquartered in Irving, Texas – is expected to unveil another quarter of huge profits in the coming week, powered by high natural gas prices. The company is currently on track for an expected $54.8bn (£47.2bn) profit this year – more than its cumulative earnings since 2018. 

October also saw the price of coal go above $200 (£172) a ton for the first time ever. We have written previously about China greatly expanding its coal production: you suspect that in the current climate plenty of countries will be following suit. 

On Wall Street, it was a similar picture to the markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris. The Dow Jones index was up by an impressive 14% to close the month at 32,733. The more broadly-based S&P500 index rose 8% to 3,872. 

Far East 

There were two major stories in this section of the Bulletin last month: confirmation that Xi Jinping is effectively ‘ruler for life’ in China, and the Hong Kong stock market. 

Let’s begin with what appears to be absolute power. October brought us the Communist Party Congress in China, an event held once every five years. Previously it has been the rule that a Chinese leader can only serve two five-year terms but, as we have reported in previous Bulletins, that rule has been removed. 

The Congress saw Xi Jinping handed a third term as President, effectively making him the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao. What was noticeable about the Congress – apart from Xi’s fierce defence of his ‘zero Covid’ policy – was that the Politburo Standing Committee, the ‘seven men who rule China’, now consists wholly of Xi loyalists. As several commentators pointed out, Xi prizes loyalty far more than ability. 

Widely believed to be ‘number two’ to Xi is Li Qiang, the Shanghai party chief. Earlier this year, there was speculation that Li’s career was doomed because of the two-month lockdown in Shanghai. But he is a close ally of Xi, showing him absolute loyalty, and is now likely to be China’s next Premier and, effectively, the man in charge of the Chinese economy. 

…And hence the concerns, especially in Hong Kong. The lockdown in Shanghai did huge damage to the Chinese economy but was deemed worth it – and was ruthlessly enforced – as part of the zero Covid policy. The fear now is that in his third term, Xi Jinping will put ideology first and economic growth a distant second. Bloomberg reported that Chinese workers are already experiencing the worst job market prospects on record as the economy continues to slow. 

Shares in tech companies like Alibaba and Ten Cent fell sharply on the confirmation of Xi’s third term, and the market in Hong Kong was especially badly hit: on the 20th of the month the market stood at 16,280 – a nine-year low. But as we will see below, the damage didn’t end there.

Away from China, the other big story was action by the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Speculation was rife on how much the BoJ had spent selling dollars and buying yen: the figure was eventually put at 2.8 trillion yen – equivalent to $19.7bn or £17bn. Did it work? At the time of writing this section of the Bulletin, the Yen was trading at 147 to the dollar – with 140 generally held to be a crucial support level. 

So we come to the region’s stock markets. At the beginning of this year, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was trading at 23,398. It closed September at 17,223 – and it closed October at 14,687, a fall of 15% for the month. For the year as a whole, the Hong Kong market is down by 37%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index also fell, albeit by a much more modest 4% to 2,893. In complete contrast, the markets in Japan and South Korea both enjoyed good months, rising by 6% to close at 27,587 and 2,294 respectively. 

Emerging Markets 

We have, as is now customary, covered the war in Ukraine in its own section above. It may, though, be appropriate to ask, ‘what’s going on in Russia?’ Rumours of a coup have swirled around all year and October brought the sudden death of another of Vladimir Putin’s long-time allies. Nikolay Petrunin, a multi-millionaire, close confidant of the President and dubbed the ‘Gazprom wonderkid’ died, reportedly from complications associated with Covid. The official line did little to quell speculation, with his death coming just five weeks after that of the head of Russia’s biggest privately-held oil producer. 

Rumours also continue to persist over Putin’s health and the inevitable question, ‘who might take over from him?’ One name that came to the fore in October was Sergei Kiriyenko, the so-called ‘Viceroy of the Donbas’ (everyone in Russia seems to have a nickname). A Kremlin insider and the man credited with the recent ‘successful’ referenda in the Donas region, Kiriyenko is apparently the man Putin wants as his successor – at least for this week. 

Everyone reading this Bulletin will know that the world’s population continues to increase, with the latest figures suggesting that the number of people on our planet has doubled since 1973. At that point, there were only six countries with a population of over 100m: today there are 15, with India expected to overtake China next year to become the world’s most populous country, with an estimated population of 1.43bn (compared to 1.425bn in China). India and China are followed on the list by Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia and the US. 

The month ended with a close-run election in Brazil, with former President Lula challenging current incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Left-winger Lula beat Bolsonaro by five percentage points in the first round of voting, but the run-off was expected to be much tighter. In the event the 77-year-old Luna – who served two terms as president between 2003 and 2010 but was subsequently accused of corruption – prevailed, winning 50.89% of the vote. 

What of the region’s stock markets in October? Like most of the world’s stock markets they made gains in October. The Russian market led the way with a gain of 11% to end the month at 2,167. The Indian market was up by 6%, breaking through the 60,000 barrier to reach 60,747. In Brazil, the market rose by 5% to close October at 116,037. 

And finally…

And so we come to the ‘And finally…’ section of the Bulletin – a bastion of sanity compared to the recent goings-on in Westminster.

Sadly, bizarre stories were in short supply in October so we must content ourselves with discussing cheese – and the end of the world. 

Older clients will remember apocryphal stories of the European Union’s ‘wine lake’ – the overproduction of wine in the EU around 2005-7, with the surplus wine having to be turned into industrial alcohol. 

Quite what the equivalent for cheese is we’re not sure – mountain? Wedge? – but the USA is going to need to find a word for it. A report revealed that the country had approximately 1.5bn pounds of cheese in cold storage as of April 2022, worth an estimated $3.4bn (£2.9bn). 

The largest constituents of this surplus are processed American cheese (there has been a long-running overproduction of milk in the US), Swiss cheese and good old Cheddar. Where does the country store that much cheese – enough to make the Statue of Liberty out of cheese many times over? Much of it is, apparently, stored in a huge underground facility just outside Springfield, Missouri. 

Speaking of going underground, October brought news of Oppidum, a Swiss company which makes luxury underground bunkers in which the ultra, ultra-rich can ride out the coming apocalypse. The L’Heritage bunkers – designed by a French architect – can obviously be customised to an owner’s taste, and can include extra facilities such as an extra-large garage (presumably for Mad Max style vehicles), a private art gallery, meeting lounges, indoor gardens and a spa with a private pool. 

Security is, of course, paramount, with the fortified blast doors controlled by a system that scans a resident’s face, iris, palm and fingerprints. The bunkers are available in the UK, EU and United Arab Emirates. Plus, inevitably, the USA. 

So it’s good to know that whatever happens, Elon Musk will be safe. There may be an apocalypse, ladies and gentlemen, but don’t worry. You’ll still be able to tweet about it…