Are tax bills set to rise?A recent report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests that the amount of tax paid in the UK is set to rise to levels not seen for thirty years. Plans by the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, to increase tax rates and reduce public spending in order to fill the £34 billion hole in the budget, will mean that over 37% of the UK’s national income will come from tax receipts, a figure not seen since 1987.
According to the IFS, the Chancellor’s decision to scrap the plans of his predecessor, George Osborne, to balance the country’s books by 2020 means that austerity measures are likely to continue beyond Hammond’s self-imposed new target of the end of the next parliament. Whilst the report estimates that the UK economy will see growth of 1.6% this year, this will slow to 1.3% in 2018.
The weaker pound following the Brexit result last year will help performance in the export and manufacturing sectors, but this will be counteracted by higher costs for consumers. The report also forecasts that the UK economy will be 3% smaller in 2030 than it would have been had Britain remained in the EU.
The report also looks at the impact upon public services, with real spending on this area having fallen by 10% since the 2009-10 financial year. The NHS has been hit particularly hard in recent years: in the five year period between 2009-10 and 2014-15, health spending has seen the slowest rate of growth since the 1950s.
Despite cuts in these and other areas, the Chancellor is relying most heavily on revenues from income tax to reduce the deficit. An increase of 24% in income tax receipts is being sought by the government from now until 2021-22. Half of these will come from an additional 140,000 people paying the top rate of tax on their earnings, despite the government’s promise to raise the threshold for the higher rate to £50,000 by 2020.
Which is best? Save or invest?
Wednesday, February 15th, 2017Whilst you might expect an increase in the cash and investment ISA limit to be welcomed, at least one dissenting voice has come from Steve Webb, former Pensions Minister and current policy director at Royal London. Webb has warned that the rise in April from the current annual limit of £15,240 up to £20,000 could encourage poor long-term investment choices.
The criticism is aimed at the cash element in particular. Webb has described cash ISAs as useful as a ‘rainy day fund’ but unsuitable as a way to help invested money grow. As such, he’s advised that a more appropriate investment limit for cash ISAs would be £5,000, just a quarter of the proposed new limit.
A report from Royal London backs up this view. Whilst cash ISAs continue to grow in popularity, the returns they offer often pale in comparison to many investment opportunities. Had all the money put into cash ISAs over the past decade been invested instead, the report estimates that savers would now collectively have £360 billion, significantly more than the actual figure of £250 billion. Inflation has also taken its toll on the value offered, with £26 billion worth of savings wiped out in the same period, thanks to cash ISAs failing to keep pace with inflation rates.
Most of us manage our finances in numbers a lot smaller than billions, however, so what does all of this mean? The latest figures show that £1,000 paid into a cash ISA a decade ago would be worth under £900 in today’s money. In contrast, had that money been invested in a typical multi-asset fund where money is spread across property, bonds and shares, it would be worth over £1,500 today.
Whilst this suggests that those looking to grow their money should opt for investments, it doesn’t take into account the safety of cash in the short term and the convenience of having money readily available in an ISA. The most important factor in making decisions around your finances is to think proactively. Think about your individual circumstances before you opt to tie your money up in an investment but, equally, don’t simply place it all in a cash ISA if you can afford not to touch your savings and allow them to grow. If you have any questions around this topic, please feel free to get in touch with us directly.
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