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Neil Woodford and the lessons it tells us

Archive for June, 2019

Neil Woodford and the lessons it tells us

Wednesday, June 12th, 2019

If you read the financial press, this is big news. ‘Star fund manager’, Neil Woodford, stopped investors withdrawing money out of his Woodford Equity Income Fund on 4th June, after the sum total of investment withdrawn from the fund reached a staggering £560m in less than four weeks. Kent County Council wanted to withdraw a further £263m, but was unable to do so before trading halted.

Investment analysts have attributed this action to the significant poor performance of the fund over recent months. Neil Woodford was once the darling fund manager who could do no wrong. A few years ago he was riding high when he left his employer, Invesco Perpetual, to set up his own company, Woodford Funds. With a reputation for having the midas touch, he’d built a large following amongst both retail and institutional investors, many of whom followed him to his new venture.

Once the blue-eyed boy, his public apology probably hasn’t gone far enough in the minds of some investors who are unable to withdraw their funds and are now nursing significant losses.

There are a number of issues at play here which, as advisers, we seek to address when managing client portfolios.  

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket

Investing is about managing risk and diversification is a key part of this. Committing all your money to one investment manager is never a great idea. By selecting a range of funds, we spread the risk within portfolios.

Good governance is essential

A robust governance process is important when managing client portfolios. When selecting funds as part of a portfolio, our established investment governance process ensures that these are regularly reviewed and action is taken where and when appropriate. This framework ensures that we act early on managing any potential risks that may impact portfolio performance.

Asset allocation is a key driver to performance

It is not just about selecting the right funds. When constructing client portfolios, we take into account the importance of asset allocation. This is the split between different types of investments such as UK and overseas equities, fixed interest and cash.  Asset allocation is as important as fund selection.

Follow the fund, not the manager

Fund managers are human, they don’t get it right all the time. The most sensible approach is to consider the fundamentals governing the fund itself, not the individual investment manager. We want to understand the answers to questions such as what process and approach does the fund take to manage risk and the stock selection process? What governance process and framework is in place to ensure a fund delivers against its stated objectives. Fund managers can be flavour of the month, it’s the fundamentals of the fund itself that provide better insight.

If you have any queries regarding your portfolio or would just like to find out more about our investment approach, do not hesitate to get in touch.

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May markets in brief

Wednesday, June 12th, 2019

The calm of the previous month ended sharply as May began, with Brexit arguments rolling on, the UK Prime Minister resigning, the European elections crushing the main parties, and Donald Trump imposing tariffs on Mexico and China. There was some positive light, however, from the emerging markets, with India, Russia and Brazil seeing economic gains.

UK

The British high street took a hit this month with the loss of Jamie Oliver’s chain of Italian restaurants, Boots’ decision to review the future of 200 stores and Marks and Spencer’s decision to close an as yet unspecified number of stores. Thomas Cook also revealed a loss of £1.45bn, seeing its shares fall 40%. Overall, retail shop vacancies are at a four year high.

There was better news away from the high street with the UK economy growing 0.5% in the first quarter and the Bank of England raising its growth forecast for the year from 1.2% to 1.5%. However, it also warned that interest rate rises might become more frequent.

The FTSE 100 Index closed down 3% at 7,162 while the pound was down against the dollar, closing the month at $1.2633.

Europe

Much of the continent’s news in May covered the European elections which saw the ‘Grand Coalition’ – the Centre-Right and Centre-Left groupings – lose significant numbers to more radical parties. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party defeated Emmanuel Macron by 24% to 22.5%. While in Italy, Matteo Salvini is reportedly preparing a new ‘parallel currency’, announcing ‘I do not govern a country on its knees’. Could this be the first step in taking Italy out of the EU?

Overall, the Eurozone economy grew in the first three quarters by 0.4%, though business confidence was said to have ‘crumbled’ according to a survey of more than 1,400 chief financial officers by Deloittes. Across the Eurozone, 65% reported the level of uncertainty as ‘high’ or ‘very high,’ with the US/China trade dispute and Brexit cited as the main reasons. Both major European markets fell in May. The German DAX index was down 5% to 11,727 while the French index fell by 7% to close the month at 5,208.

US

Strong labour data convinced the Fed to keep rates on hold as the US economy added 263,000 more jobs in April, with the unemployment rate now at its lowest since 1969. In company news, Facebook announced plans to launch a cryptocurrency to rival Bitcoin, and Ford said that it would need to shed 7,000 jobs as it looked to cut costs. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index fell in the month, ending May down 7% at 24,815.

Far East

The trade war between the US and China intensified as the US re-imposed tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods. China retaliated on 1st June by imposing tariffs of up to 25% on $60bn of US goods.

To add to the worries of a slowdown, analysts have started to ask if ‘winter is coming’ to the booming Chinese tech sector, with electric vehicles, industrial robots and microchip production all slowing down recently. In addition, big companies like Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu have all cut jobs, with one in five Chinese tech companies now planning staff cuts.

All the major stock markets in the region were down due to the trade war. Hong Kong was the worst affected, falling 9% to 26,901. The Japanese and South Korean markets were both down by 7% to 20,601 and 2,042 respectively, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index was down by 6% to end May at 2,899.

Emerging Markets

India saw the world’s largest democratic vote with 600m voting for a new Prime Minister – the victory went to the incumbent Narenda Modi by a landslide. One of the big questions is how Modi will handle the Indian economy. In his first term, India became the world’s fastest growing economy as he cut red tape and reformed the bankruptcy laws. But his biggest gamble, banning more than three-quarters of the notes in circulation in a bid to tackle corruption, backfired badly and delivered a significant blow to economic growth.

Brazil’s economy fell by 0.2% in the first three months of the year, the first decline since 2016. Despite this bad news, the Brazilian market still managed a gain of 1% in the month, closing May at 97,030. The Indian stock market rose 2% to 39,714 but the star performer this month was the Russian market, which rose 4% to finish the month at 2,665.

We hope you have great June and are preparing for a warm summer. If you have any questions about the latest stock market news, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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Gifting rules and inheritance tax

Wednesday, June 5th, 2019

Following an in depth study conducted by the National Centre for Social Research (NCSR) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), it has been discovered that only one in four people making financial gifts are aware of the risks of inheritance tax. Further to this, they found that only 45% of gifters reported being aware of inheritance tax rules and exemptions when they gave their largest gift.

A staggeringly low 8% of respondents considered tax rules before making a financial gift and most did not associate gifting with inheritance tax. When compared with the fact that over half of respondents said that they planned to leave inheritance, it’s obvious that there seems to be a gap in gifter’s knowledge.

For those who were aware of the rules surrounding inheritance tax, 54% said this influenced the value of their largest gift. This was most prevalent amongst affluent taxpayers who had assets of £500,000 or more. Respondents below this threshold had more limited knowledge of the long-term effects of inheritance tax, the seven-year rule or the annual limit on gifts.

So, where does the money go?

80% of gifters gave to individuals, with charities coming in second at around 10%. The most common beneficiaries were adult children, followed by 15% giving to parents or other family members and 14% making gifts to friends. The most popular reasons were presents for birthdays and weddings.

The data also suggested that even when individuals considered inheritance tax rulings, it did not deter them from giving the gift.

The rules

Gifts of £250 or less, totalling below £3,000 per year, are exempt from inheritance tax. Most gifts, in fact, made from one individual to another during their lifetime are exempt, unless the donor dies within seven years of making the gift. These gifts are referred to as potentially exempt transfers (PETs).

The current starting threshold for inheritance tax for a single person is set at £325,000. This amount is then doubled for married couples and civil partners, who also have the additional benefit of the residential nil-rate band, which allows for a further £150,000 of tax-free, property-based inheritance per person. This particular allowance is set to rise to £175,000 as of the 20th of April 2020.

An unsuccessful PET is taxed depending on how long the gifter has lived following the giving of the gift and is referred to as ‘taper relief.’ If a gift is given less than three years before death, the full rate of 40% is applied to the gift, tapering off to 8% if the gift was given between six to seven years before death.

However, this is not the case when it comes to transactions with a reservation of benefit. For example, if you give away your home to your children and continue to occupy it rent-free, the property is still considered as forming part of your estate immediately if the worst were to happen. An individual cannot retain possession of a chattel or property whilst making a PET.

Though it may be difficult to plan for the worst, knowing how to best mitigate the tax surrounding gifts and inheritance can help you make key financial decisions at the most opportune moments, and prevent any avoidable losses when it comes to sharing your assets with the people and organisations that matter most to you.

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Make the most of diversification.

Wednesday, June 5th, 2019

Diversification is a word that seems to get tossed around a lot in conversations around savings and investment. We hear it often, but what does it mean?

Put simply, diversification is a risk management strategy that mixes a variety of investments within a portfolio. Through having different kinds of assets in a portfolio, the goal is to obtain higher long-term returns and lower the risk of any sole holding. Essentially, you are hedging your bets.

By smoothing out the risk of each investment within your portfolio, you’re aiming to neutralise the negative performance of some investments with the positive performance of others. Though your investments will only benefit when the different investments are not perfectly correlated, you want them to respond differently, often in opposition to one another, to market influences.

One drawback to be aware of, though, is that by limiting portfolio risk through diversification, you could potentially be mitigating performance in the short term.

Types of investment

Most fund managers and advisers diversify investments across asset classes and determine what percentage of the portfolio to allocate to each. Such asset classes include:

  • Stocks – shares or equity in a publicly traded company.
  • Fixed-interest securities – also known as bonds, fixed-interest securities represent a loan made by an investor or a borrower and are often used by companies, states and sovereign governments to finance various projects.
  • Real estate – buildings, land, natural resources, agriculture, livestock and water or mineral deposits.
  • Commodities – basic goods necessary for the production of other products or services.
  • Cash and short-term cash equivalents – savings, cash ISAs, savings bonds and premium bonds.

How do you make the most of it?

The unfortunate nature of investment is that all winning streaks end. It’s human nature to be drawn to winners and avoid losers. But investing is much more fluid, with no particular investment reigning as champion for long. By investing only in what’s doing well currently, you might miss out on any rising stars beginning their ascent to success. You may want to jump from top performer to top performer, however more often than not, the best gains will have been and gone by the time you invest. You may even be investing prior to the asset reducing in return.

In an ideal world, you’d get high returns from your savings and investments with no risk. However, reality dictates that there must be a trade-off – high risk often leads to higher returns.

Though it is sensible to hold part of your assets in low-risk investments, such as Cash ISAs, some see value in investigating more high risk investments in order to acquire those lucrative higher returns. However, you need to make sure that you’d be happy with running the risk of making a loss.

A general rule of thumb is that the older you are, the less you’ll want to expose your investments to market risk – meaning that diversifying into more low risk investments may be the ideal approach for you in order to keep your investments secure.

There are also many ways to diversify within a single kind of investment. For example, with shares, you can spread your investments between large and small companies, UK and overseas markets and within different sectors like technology, financials or raw materials.

Finally, remember that the value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and you might get back less than you invested. Always proceed with caution – diversification helps mitigate the risks but won’t remove them entirely.

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