Contact us: 01799 543222

March market commentary

Archive for the ‘Commentary’ Category

March market commentary

Thursday, March 2nd, 2023

Introduction

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had a huge impact on the global economy, pushing up commodity prices, inflation and living costs around the world.

Last month saw the first anniversary of the invasion, and amid the renewed displays of solidarity from leaders in the UK, the US and the European Union, was the uncomfortable reminder that this could be a prolonged conflict.

Policymakers are therefore having to balance their continued support for Ukraine with minimising the economic fallout, and the effects this will have on households and businesses.

As always, let’s take a look at the details to see what’s happening in key markets across the globe.

UK

The month began with the Bank of England raising interest rates from 3.5% to 4%. This was the tenth rate hike in a row and means they are at their highest level in 14 years. However, there was some slightly better news as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that although GDP fell by 0.5% in December, the economy saw zero growth over the final quarter of 2022 as a whole. This meant that the UK narrowly avoided slipping into recession last year, although it remains to be seen whether this has been merely postponed, rather than avoided.

Inflation, meanwhile, has continued to fall, dropping from 10.5% in December to 10.1% in January. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is to deliver his Spring Budget in March, and has already ruled out generous tax cuts, arguing that the “best tax cut right now is a cut in inflation”. However, there has been pressure on the Chancellor to announce tax cuts, given ongoing cost of living pressures, widespread industrial action, and notably, the Government seeing a surprise £5.4bn surplus in its finances in January.

The mixed economic picture led to key sectors seeing varying fortunes. For instance, while retail sales rose unexpectedly by 0.5% in January, figures from Nationwide showed house prices fell for the fifth month in a row, dropping by 0.6% to an average of £258,297.

Meanwhile, it was a good month for energy companies, with British Gas owner Centrica reporting profits of £3.3bn in 2022, and Shell revealing that its profits doubled last year to £32.2bn – the highest in its 115-year history. In addition, BP reported record annual profits of £23bn in 2022, while soaring energy prices helped EDF’s UK arm return to profit last year after seeing losses in 2021.

There were also several notable headlines in the UK employment market, with carmaker Ford announcing plans to cut 1,300 jobs around the country over the next two years. There was better news from Aldi, which confirmed it intends to create 6,000 new jobs in the UK this year.

As ever, Brexit continues to be a huge subject of debate, with many citing it as a key factor behind food shortages across the UK, although high energy prices and freak weather conditions have also contributed to supply issues nationwide.

On the financial markets, the FTSE-100 Index ended the month at 7,857 points, up 1.10% on January. The pound ended February up 0.42% against the dollar.

Ukraine

Last month saw the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a renewed display of international resolve and solidarity from the UK, Europe and the US.

In early February, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to the UK to address MPs in Westminster Hall and meet King Charles at Buckingham Palace, before travelling to Brussels to address the European Parliament.

Later on in the month, as the anniversary approached, US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv, where he pledged to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.

Meanwhile, China has called for Russia and Ukraine to reach a political settlement to end the war, and President Zelenskyy has said he wants to meet China’s President Xi Jinping after Beijing published a 12-point peace plan.

Europe

February ended with the European Union reaching a new deal with the UK over post-Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, although whether this wins the approval of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland remains to be seen.

Last month also saw the European Commission adopt tougher data protection measures by ordering its staff to remove the TikTok app from their phones and corporate devices, due to concerns that user data is being harvested and sent to the Chinese government.

In other news, Gas Infrastructure Europe confirmed that Europe was on course to end winter with the amount of gas in storage close to a record high – a significant development as it means the continent is becoming less reliant on energy from Russia. However, there was less positive news for French energy provider EDF, which saw record losses of £16bn, despite soaring energy prices in 2022.

Germany, meanwhile, saw industrial action during February, with a walkout by ground crew over pay bringing seven major airports to a standstill.

On the financial markets, Germany’s DAX index saw an increase of 1.59% in February to end the month at 15,369 points. Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 index rose by 2.75% in the month to end at 7,276 points.

US

The US Federal Reserve started the month by raising interest rates by 0.25%, which leaves the bank’s benchmark rate at 4.5%-4.75% – the highest level since 2007. Many experts, including economists polled by Reuters, believe the Fed will raise interest rates at least two more times in the next few months, as it continues working to stabilise prices.

This comes as inflation continues to cool, falling from 6.5% in the 12 months to December to 6.4% in the year to January. Although this means inflation has now eased for seven consecutive months, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by increases in the cost of food, energy and housing.

The US economy performed strongly in the face of continuing pressures on the cost of living and rising interest rates. During the final quarter of 2022, the economy grew by 2.9% year-on-year. Although this was down on the 3.2% figure recorded in the previous quarter, it was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, it has not eased fears among some analysts that a recession is inevitable.

It’s a mixed picture in the US, with official figures showing slumps in construction activity and home sales. However, data from the Labor Department showed that employers added 517,000 jobs in January, which helped push the unemployment rate down to 3.4% – its lowest level in more than half a century.

Meanwhile, retail sales rose by 3.0% last month, the largest increase since March 2021. This backed up the findings of a study by the Bank of America Institute, which attributed increased spending in January on consumers having “solid cash buffers and borrowing capacity”, even if they were on relatively low incomes.

The difficult global economic climate weighed heavily on the financial markets during February, with the Dow Jones falling by 4.21% to end at 32,656, and the more broadly-based S&P 500 index falling by 3.62% to end at 3,970.

Far East

This month saw China’s top foreign policy official Wang Yi visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. But equally significantly, Beijing has called for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, publishing a 12-point position paper on what needs to be done to end the war.

The Kremlin has confirmed it is paying “a great deal of attention” to China’s peace plan, and is analysing its proposal in detail.

Much has been made of the timing of this intervention, given worsening diplomatic relations between China and the US in recent months. Nevertheless, trade between the two nations hit a record high last year, with imports and exports totalling £572.6bn in 2022.

The recent easing of Covid restrictions in China looks set to trigger renewed growth in China, with the IMF predicting growth of 5.2% this year, compared with just 3% last year.

Meanwhile in Japan, official figures showed the economy is growing at a much slower pace than had been expected. Whereas many forecasts had predicted growth of 2% in the final quarter of 2022, the final figure was just 0.6% – and this slow growth coincides with inflation standing at a 42-year high.

On the financial markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by 9.41% to end February at 19,785, while Japan’s Nikkei Dow index rose by 3.46% to 27,445. China’s Shanghai Composite index rose by 0.74% to 3,279, while the market in South Korea fell by 0.50% to end at 2,412.

Emerging Markets

India looks set to become a much bigger player on the global stage, with the IMF predicting that emerging and developing markets will account for about 80% of global growth in 2023 and 2024. India will contribute more than 15% of this growth.

In what may be a reflection of its growing international status, Air India has ordered 470 new aircraft, which the company says will help it offer a “world-class proposition serving global travellers with an Indian heart”.

Brazil is also enjoying an economic surge, with figures from its central bank showing activity increased by 2.0% in 2022.

Meanwhile, Russia has announced that it will respond to a price cap on oil products imposed by other major economies by reducing production of crude oil by 500,000 barrels a day.

On the financial markets, India’s BSE Sensex index fell by 2.22% to end the month at 17,538, while Russia’s MOEX index saw an upturn of 1.23% to end at 2,252. Brazil’s Bovespa index, meanwhile, fell by 6.58% to end the month at 105,961.

And Finally…

Just weeks after a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US triggered talk that aliens had finally landed, another mysterious object has led to some wondering if extraterrestrials are walking among us.

A giant sphere, referred to as “Godzilla egg” by a BBC reporter, washed ashore in the Japanese city of Hamamatsu. Police were alerted immediately, but intriguingly, they’ve not yet identified what the strange object is. Fascinating, as Mr Spock might say…

Back to more earthly matters, and the latest in our reports of iconic images being seen in food. Graham and Cathy Bloye were enjoying cauliflower wings at The Stanborough Beefeater in Welwyn Garden City when they noticed that one of the wings resembled the outline of the UK.

But after sharing images of their patriotic meal on social media, people viewing the post noticed that several key parts of the country were missing – notably the Isle of Wight and the Isle of Man. We’ve also taken a look at the image ourselves, and it’s not just British islands that are missing – East Anglia is clearly missing too.

What is the state pension triple lock?

Wednesday, December 14th, 2022

The Chancellor’s decision to protect the state pension triple lock was one of the most
headline-grabbing aspects of the recent Budget.

But what exactly is the triple lock and what does it mean? In short, it’s a mechanism designed to make sure the state pension doesn’t lose value, so it will go up by whichever is highest of the following measures:

Average earnings
The rate of inflation (as per the Consumer Price Index)
2.5 per cent

So if, for example, average earnings went up by three per cent, the state pension would go
up this amount, provided the rate of inflation was also lower than this amount. Or if average earnings went up by two per cent and inflation increased by three per cent in the same year, the state pension would go up by the latter amount.

The Chancellor’s pledge to protect the state pension triple lock was therefore very
significant in light of the current cost of living crisis and inflation being at a 40-year high.
With this guarantee in place, pensioners are in a stronger position to withstand the tough
economic climate and make ends meet at a time when so many people are really feeling
the pinch.

However, it should be noted that Jeremy Hunt didn’t commit to saying how long the
measure would remain in place.

This is a costly policy for the government at a time when it wants to spend public money
more efficiently and bring down public debt. So there’s every chance we could again be
asking about the future of the triple lock before the end of the next financial year.
We should also stress that the full state pension is currently £185.15 per week, which works
out to less than £10,000 a year.

So even though it’s due to rise by £870 in April 2023, that’s still far from being enough
money to live off, let alone enjoy the quality of life that you aspire to during your
retirement.

That’s why you should make sure you have plans in place to supplement the state pension,
such as workplace pensions, private pensions and other investments, and ensure that
these represent the bulk of your income.

Then you can set yourself up to enjoy a much more comfortable lifestyle during your
retirement, having the means to live the kind of life that you want and deserve.
If you have any questions about saving for retirement and making the most of your
pensions, we’re here to help and will be happy to speak with you.

Get in touch and take charge of your retirement planning today.

Why it’s important to have a will

Wednesday, December 14th, 2022

If you haven’t got a will, you don’t have control over what happens to your money and assets after you die.

That means your wealth won’t go to your chosen beneficiaries, and could cause lots of lengthy and costly legal issues for the loved ones you leave behind.

Here are our top reasons why you should make sure you have a legally binding will in place.

Put yourself in control

If you die without a valid will, strict inheritance laws, known as the Rules of Intestacy, will apply.

These state that once any tax and debts have been paid, the first £250,000 of what remains, your personal possessions and half of any outstanding wealth will go to your spouse or civil partner, with the rest going to your children once they’ve turned 18.

It’s important to have a will because these rules might not necessarily reflect what you actually want to happen to your money when you die.

Make sure you can leave money to your partner

While the Rules of Intestacy enable a share of your money to go to your spouse or civil partner, there is no provision for unmarried partners. So if you’re living with your partner but not married, they won’t inherit a penny or have any legal claim to your estate, even if you’ve been together for many years and have children together.

Having a legally valid will in place is the only way to guarantee that you can leave money to your partner if you haven’t yet tied the knot.

Reflect your changing circumstances

As time passes, your circumstances can change dramatically. Perhaps you’ve got married, had children, or got divorced, or maybe you’ve bought a property or invested in a business.

You can update your will throughout your life, so it accurately reflects your current situation at any given time.

Make childcare provision

A will allows you to nominate a guardian for your children if you and your partner die. Otherwise, a Court will have to make this decision.

Reduce your tax liability

By writing a will, you can make sure you’re not paying more than you need to in inheritance tax.

Help your loved ones avoid complicated legal processes

If you write a will, you can choose who you want to handle your estate. Otherwise, a Court will have to decide, and this can not only be costly and time-consuming for your loved ones, but also extremely upsetting and could lead to family disputes.

By being clear about your wishes and who is responsible for making key decisions, you’re much more likely to avoid causing any unnecessary friction at a time when feelings might already be running high.

State your funeral wishes

If you have particular wishes for your funeral, such as where you want it to be, whether you want to be buried or cremated and what readings you’d like at the service, a will is a good place to make this known.

Again, it makes it easier for your family and loved ones at a distressing time.

Leave money to a good cause

You can use your will to leave a share of your estate to a charity or cause that is important to you.

Get peace of mind

Ultimately, having a will in place means you can be sure your wealth will go to your chosen recipients and be distributed in line with your wishes.

That can give you great confidence and peace of mind, as you know you’re not leaving anything to chance.

For advice on writing a will and planning your finances to make the most of your inheritance, please get in touch with us, and we’ll be happy to speak with you.

November market commentary

Wednesday, November 16th, 2022

Introduction 

Where did we leave the soap opera that is British politics? At the end of September, Liz Truss was the Prime Minister, and Kwasi Kwarteng was her Chancellor. As we reported last month, Kwarteng presented his ‘fiscal statement’ on Friday 23rd September. 

Three weeks later, he was gone and Liz Truss had to endure the most public of humiliations as new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt fed her ‘plan for growth’, policy after policy, into the parliamentary shredder. Eleven days later, Truss offered her own resignation, replaced by Rishi Sunak, the man she had defeated in the race to succeed Boris Johnson. The shortest serving PM on record was replaced by the youngest for over a century, meaning that in 2022, the UK has had four different Chancellors and three Prime Ministers. 

There was, though, far more to the news than the UK – neither was it the only country to have a new leader. 

As we report below, October brought us the Communist Party Congress in Beijing – and confirmation that Xi Jinping is effectively ruler of China for life. The war in Ukraine continued – and the month ended with Russia pulling out of the grain deal agreed earlier this year, sparking fears of a threat to the world’s food supply. 

And as Russia gave the appearance of mobilising nuclear weapons, American President Joe Biden called it, “the most dangerous time since [the Cuban missile crisis of] 1962”. Finland indicated that it would be willing to host nuclear weapons on its border with Russia. 

How did the world’s stock markets react to all the news? It was a long way from the doom and gloom that might have been expected. All but two of the markets we cover in the Bulletin made gains in October: shares in China and Hong Kong, however, did not react well to Xi Jinping’s third term. As we report below, there are real fears that he will put political ideology, and his zero Covid policy, ahead of economic growth. 

As always, let us look at all the news and its impact on the stock markets we cover in the Bulletin. 

UK 

Many of the notes we made in the early part of the month – ‘Kwarteng to bring forward debt plan from November 23rd – were subsequently rendered irrelevant by the events mentioned above. The medium term fiscal statement, at one time due to be delivered on October 31st, has now been pushed back to Thursday November 17th and upgraded to a full Autumn Statement. 

The statement – which will come with forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility – is expected to detail billions of pounds worth of public spending cuts in an attempt to reassure the markets about the stability of the UK economy. The new Chancellor has said he is willing to take ‘politically embarrassing’ decisions. 

The beginning of October was turbulent, to say the least. Kwasi Kwarteng swiftly U-turned on his decision to scrap the 45p tax rate, saying it was a ‘distraction’. A day later, he was forced to bring forward his debt cutting plan from November 23rd. Small wonder that ratings agency Fitch downgraded its outlook for UK government debt from ‘stable’ to ‘negative,’ which put further pressure on the pound. 

Kwarteng’s position had become untenable and, as we reported in the introduction, the Prime Minister – with a new Chancellor calling the shots and the Bank of England supporting the pound – was forced to undergo a public humiliation which wouldn’t have looked out of place on Game of Thrones. 

Even away from politics, good news was hard to find in October. Figures for August showed that the economy had unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, leading to fears of a recession. September saw inflation at 10.1% – back to a 40-year high – as the BBC reported that people ‘are delaying turning their heating on’. The International Monetary Fund added to the gloom, saying that it expected inflation in the UK to peak at 11.3% before the end of the year. 

Clearly the rising prices are impacting business, with City AM firstly reporting that company insolvencies in the second quarter hit their highest level since 2009, and a few days later suggesting that ’50,000 small businesses in London could collapse’. While that last headline might seem a shade alarmist, there is no doubt that the coming year will be a very challenging one for our clients who own and run SMEs. 

What about jobs in general and the nation’s high street? The month got off to a bad start with Tesco reporting first half profits sharply down on last year. The figure of £413m was 64% down on the first six months of 2021, as the supermarket chain warned that ‘shoppers are watching every penny’.

A day later, City AM was reporting that high street spending had ‘slumped’, with the rate of footfall increase post-Covid slowing sharply, with ‘shoppers cutting back on shopping sprees’. The counter-argument to that, of course, is that shoppers simply went online – but as we will see in the US section, Amazon also reported disappointing figures. 

There were two pinpoints of light at the end of the tunnel. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest figure recorded for 50 years. And we may finally be returning to the office, at least in London. Restaurant chain Itsu declared that the capital was ‘back in business’, with increasing numbers of customers being served from Monday to Friday. 

And what many of our clients have waited so long for might soon be here. ‘Savers rates finally on the move’ reported the BBC. It is, of course, the flipside of the recent higher mortgage rates, but it appears that there is finally some real competition emerging in the savings market. ‘Experts say banks and building societies are leapfrogging each other on best buy tables,’ said the story – music to the ears of many of our clients. 

It is impossible, though, to leave the UK section anywhere other than back with the new Prime Minister and Chancellor. For the time being, their appointment seems to have calmed the markets, with both the pound and the FTSE ultimately making gains in October. Sunak ‘not perfect but the right choice for now’ was how one commentator put it, and that appears to be the view of the markets. Although UK Government debt continues to rise, the cost of servicing it is, at least for now, coming down. 

The FTSE-100 index of leading shares was up by 3% to close the month at 7,095. The pound strengthened by a similar percentage against the dollar, and ended October trading at $1.1490. 

Ukraine 

October began with the US committing a further $625m (£538m) in defence aid to Ukraine following a telephone conversation between Presidents Zelenskyy and Biden. This takes the total US spend to date to $16.8bn (£14.5bn) – a figure which has not gone down well with some of the country’s more right-wing commentators. 

The month’s first significant event in the conflict came a few days later when a huge blast destroyed sections of a bridge leading to Crimea – both strategically important and a symbol of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. 

Retaliatory strikes across Ukraine quickly followed and – still evidently not satisfied with progress – in mid-month, Putin sacked two of his senior military commanders and appointed General Sergey Surovikin to lead the next phase of the conflict. Surovikin is apparently known as ‘General Armageddon’, which may give some clue to future Russian tactics. 

Ukraine has huge, untapped gas supplies in the Dnipro-Donets basin, and held talks with American drillers about pumping this gas to Europe, reducing the region’s dependence on Russian gas – and presumably making Europe more willing to supply Ukraine with the weapons it now needs. 

October saw China order all its citizens to leave Ukraine. Whether this was in response to the escalation of Russia’s shelling following the attack on the bridge, or whether China knows of Putin’s further plans, is impossible to say. What we can say is that the war has now lasted for eight months, and there is no end – either military or diplomatic – in sight. 

The month ended with another twist to the downward spiral as Russia suspended its participation in the grain deal struck in the summer. This followed what it described as a ‘massive’ drone attack on its Black Sea fleet, and prompted the ominous Sunday Telegraph headline, ‘Food prices to surge after Putin chokes grain supply.’ 

Europe 

While the debate about a windfall tax on energy firms rages on in the UK, the EU has made its mind up. 

The 27 member bloc has confirmed it will impose a windfall tax on energy companies’ profits, aiming to raise funds to provide relief for families and businesses across the continent. The measures include a levy on fossil fuel companies’ surplus profits made in 2022 or 2023, and another levy on excess revenues low-cost producers make from the rising electricity costs. 

At the same time, Sweden all but accepted that it will face power shortages this winter. It was hit by a dry and relatively windless summer, meaning less energy was generated from renewables: in addition the country’s nuclear power plants are not yet ready to supply consumers. 

The Swedish prosecution authority declared the area around the ruptured Nord Stream pipelines a ‘crime scene’, banning divers and vessels from being within 5.8 miles of the leaks. 

There were more twists in the energy tale in the middle of the month, when the biggest oil refinery in Europe, Shell’s Pernis in the Netherlands, suffered what was described as a ‘malfunction’. This came on top of the pressure on fuel supplies caused by a wave of strikes in France. 

In company news, Porsche overtook Volkswagen to become Europe’s most valuable car maker, with shares surging to €93 (£80) before stabilising at around €91 (£78), to give the company a valuation of €84bn (£72bn) and take it past Volkswagen. 

Long time readers of this Bulletin will remember the travails of Deutsche Bank. Mired in scandals and seemingly-endless losses it was long seen as the ‘sick man’ of the global banking sector, but a turnaround under Christian Sewing has just seen the bank record its ninth successive quarterly profit, making €1.12bn (£961m) in the three months to September, up from €194m (£166m) in the same period last year. 

Europe’s stock markets took their cue from Porsche and Deutsche Bank rather than continuing worries about energy, with both the German and French markets rising by 9% in the month. They closed October at 13,254 and 6,267 respectively. 

US 

For much of this year, we have been reporting on Elon Musk’s on/off pursuit of the social media platform Twitter. The deal was finally concluded with the world’s richest man paying $44bn (£38bn) for the company, walking into the headquarters building carrying a sink and promptly cutting a swathe through the senior management team. 

Quite what Musk’s plans are for the company remain to be seen: there is talk that he wants to create a ‘super-app’ that will take care of every aspect of our lives, much like some of the apps in the Far East. You suspect we won’t have long to wait to find out…

Staying with Elon Musk, October was a good month for Tesla. A few days after the company announced that it would deliver its first trucks in December – Pepsi has apparently ordered 100 – came the news that it had sold 83,135 China-made vehicles in September. That was a new record, and up 8% on August, according to figures from the China Passenger Car Association. 

If October was a good month for Tesla, it was emphatically not a good month for some of the tech giants, who were badly hit by the slowdown in the economy and the consequent caution on the part of advertisers. Both Google and Microsoft reported slowing sales growth – Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube reported sales up just 6% in the third quarter – while Facebook shares slumped to a six-year low. 

The chill wind also blew through Amazon: analysts were disappointed with the 3rd quarter figures, as revenue growth slowed to 27% from the 33% recorded in the second quarter. The company said it expected the challenges of inflation, rising fuel costs and weaker demand to persist ‘through the holiday quarter’. CEO Brian Olsavsky said the company ‘will be looking at our cost structure and areas where we can save money’. The net result of all this was a fall of nearly 20% in the company’s shares, wiping $202bn (£174bn) off the company’s value. 

In the wider US economy, jobs growth slowed to 263,000 new jobs in September – the lowest figure since April 2021 – as the fight against inflation continued. Analysts continue to expect further rises in US interest rates. 

We have mentioned above the EU’s decision to impose a windfall tax on energy companies. How they must wish they could get their hands on Exxon Mobil: the company – headquartered in Irving, Texas – is expected to unveil another quarter of huge profits in the coming week, powered by high natural gas prices. The company is currently on track for an expected $54.8bn (£47.2bn) profit this year – more than its cumulative earnings since 2018. 

October also saw the price of coal go above $200 (£172) a ton for the first time ever. We have written previously about China greatly expanding its coal production: you suspect that in the current climate plenty of countries will be following suit. 

On Wall Street, it was a similar picture to the markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris. The Dow Jones index was up by an impressive 14% to close the month at 32,733. The more broadly-based S&P500 index rose 8% to 3,872. 

Far East 

There were two major stories in this section of the Bulletin last month: confirmation that Xi Jinping is effectively ‘ruler for life’ in China, and the Hong Kong stock market. 

Let’s begin with what appears to be absolute power. October brought us the Communist Party Congress in China, an event held once every five years. Previously it has been the rule that a Chinese leader can only serve two five-year terms but, as we have reported in previous Bulletins, that rule has been removed. 

The Congress saw Xi Jinping handed a third term as President, effectively making him the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao. What was noticeable about the Congress – apart from Xi’s fierce defence of his ‘zero Covid’ policy – was that the Politburo Standing Committee, the ‘seven men who rule China’, now consists wholly of Xi loyalists. As several commentators pointed out, Xi prizes loyalty far more than ability. 

Widely believed to be ‘number two’ to Xi is Li Qiang, the Shanghai party chief. Earlier this year, there was speculation that Li’s career was doomed because of the two-month lockdown in Shanghai. But he is a close ally of Xi, showing him absolute loyalty, and is now likely to be China’s next Premier and, effectively, the man in charge of the Chinese economy. 

…And hence the concerns, especially in Hong Kong. The lockdown in Shanghai did huge damage to the Chinese economy but was deemed worth it – and was ruthlessly enforced – as part of the zero Covid policy. The fear now is that in his third term, Xi Jinping will put ideology first and economic growth a distant second. Bloomberg reported that Chinese workers are already experiencing the worst job market prospects on record as the economy continues to slow. 

Shares in tech companies like Alibaba and Ten Cent fell sharply on the confirmation of Xi’s third term, and the market in Hong Kong was especially badly hit: on the 20th of the month the market stood at 16,280 – a nine-year low. But as we will see below, the damage didn’t end there.

Away from China, the other big story was action by the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Speculation was rife on how much the BoJ had spent selling dollars and buying yen: the figure was eventually put at 2.8 trillion yen – equivalent to $19.7bn or £17bn. Did it work? At the time of writing this section of the Bulletin, the Yen was trading at 147 to the dollar – with 140 generally held to be a crucial support level. 

So we come to the region’s stock markets. At the beginning of this year, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was trading at 23,398. It closed September at 17,223 – and it closed October at 14,687, a fall of 15% for the month. For the year as a whole, the Hong Kong market is down by 37%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index also fell, albeit by a much more modest 4% to 2,893. In complete contrast, the markets in Japan and South Korea both enjoyed good months, rising by 6% to close at 27,587 and 2,294 respectively. 

Emerging Markets 

We have, as is now customary, covered the war in Ukraine in its own section above. It may, though, be appropriate to ask, ‘what’s going on in Russia?’ Rumours of a coup have swirled around all year and October brought the sudden death of another of Vladimir Putin’s long-time allies. Nikolay Petrunin, a multi-millionaire, close confidant of the President and dubbed the ‘Gazprom wonderkid’ died, reportedly from complications associated with Covid. The official line did little to quell speculation, with his death coming just five weeks after that of the head of Russia’s biggest privately-held oil producer. 

Rumours also continue to persist over Putin’s health and the inevitable question, ‘who might take over from him?’ One name that came to the fore in October was Sergei Kiriyenko, the so-called ‘Viceroy of the Donbas’ (everyone in Russia seems to have a nickname). A Kremlin insider and the man credited with the recent ‘successful’ referenda in the Donas region, Kiriyenko is apparently the man Putin wants as his successor – at least for this week. 

Everyone reading this Bulletin will know that the world’s population continues to increase, with the latest figures suggesting that the number of people on our planet has doubled since 1973. At that point, there were only six countries with a population of over 100m: today there are 15, with India expected to overtake China next year to become the world’s most populous country, with an estimated population of 1.43bn (compared to 1.425bn in China). India and China are followed on the list by Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia and the US. 

The month ended with a close-run election in Brazil, with former President Lula challenging current incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Left-winger Lula beat Bolsonaro by five percentage points in the first round of voting, but the run-off was expected to be much tighter. In the event the 77-year-old Luna – who served two terms as president between 2003 and 2010 but was subsequently accused of corruption – prevailed, winning 50.89% of the vote. 

What of the region’s stock markets in October? Like most of the world’s stock markets they made gains in October. The Russian market led the way with a gain of 11% to end the month at 2,167. The Indian market was up by 6%, breaking through the 60,000 barrier to reach 60,747. In Brazil, the market rose by 5% to close October at 116,037. 

And finally…

And so we come to the ‘And finally…’ section of the Bulletin – a bastion of sanity compared to the recent goings-on in Westminster.

Sadly, bizarre stories were in short supply in October so we must content ourselves with discussing cheese – and the end of the world. 

Older clients will remember apocryphal stories of the European Union’s ‘wine lake’ – the overproduction of wine in the EU around 2005-7, with the surplus wine having to be turned into industrial alcohol. 

Quite what the equivalent for cheese is we’re not sure – mountain? Wedge? – but the USA is going to need to find a word for it. A report revealed that the country had approximately 1.5bn pounds of cheese in cold storage as of April 2022, worth an estimated $3.4bn (£2.9bn). 

The largest constituents of this surplus are processed American cheese (there has been a long-running overproduction of milk in the US), Swiss cheese and good old Cheddar. Where does the country store that much cheese – enough to make the Statue of Liberty out of cheese many times over? Much of it is, apparently, stored in a huge underground facility just outside Springfield, Missouri. 

Speaking of going underground, October brought news of Oppidum, a Swiss company which makes luxury underground bunkers in which the ultra, ultra-rich can ride out the coming apocalypse. The L’Heritage bunkers – designed by a French architect – can obviously be customised to an owner’s taste, and can include extra facilities such as an extra-large garage (presumably for Mad Max style vehicles), a private art gallery, meeting lounges, indoor gardens and a spa with a private pool. 

Security is, of course, paramount, with the fortified blast doors controlled by a system that scans a resident’s face, iris, palm and fingerprints. The bunkers are available in the UK, EU and United Arab Emirates. Plus, inevitably, the USA. 

So it’s good to know that whatever happens, Elon Musk will be safe. There may be an apocalypse, ladies and gentlemen, but don’t worry. You’ll still be able to tweet about it…

 

What are gilts?

Wednesday, October 19th, 2022

The recent Mini Budget, a £45 billion tax cutting package, paid for by increased public borrowing, led to panic among many investors and a run on Britain’s pension funds. As a result, the Bank of England was forced to step in to stop a collapse by pledging to buy around £65 billion of long-dated gilts.

But what exactly are gilts and why do they matter? For many, the financial jargon that has – justifiably – dominated the headlines in recent weeks is confusing and incomprehensible, so we’ll try to answer these questions in straightforward terms.

UK gilts are fixed-interest securities issued by the British government when it wants to raise funds. They are considered low-risk investments, as the government isn’t likely to go bankrupt, which means they’re likely to be able to pay back the loan in full, plus the interest. 

You can either invest in conventional gilts, with a fixed interest rate or in index-linked gilts, which are linked to the Retail Price Index, meaning their values will rise with inflation. 

So investing in a gilt, or a government bond, is similar to making a loan. But instead of lending to an individual, you’re lending to a business or government.

Investors can then receive a regular income in the form of interest over a set period of time, or this income can be reinvested.

When the gilt reaches maturity, the initial nominal investment is then repaid, along with the proceeds of any reinvested amounts.

How do gilts work?

Each gilt is made up of an issuer, coupon and redemption date. For example:

Treasury stock 4% 2023

The issuer is the UK Government Treasury and the coupon is set at 4% interest on a sum of money (typically £100). The redemption date is set at 2023. 

So if the government wanted to raise, let’s say, £1 million, it would release one hundred thousand gilts at the value of £100 each. If you were to purchase £1,000 worth of these Treasury gilts, you would receive £40 every year until the loan was repaid in 2023.

You’ll usually find that the further away the redemption date, the higher the interest you will receive. 

If you have any questions about the various investment options that are open to you, feel free to get in touch with us, and we’ll be happy to help.

Sources

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/28/bank-of-england-in-65bn-scramble-to-avert-financial-crisis

https://www.ft.com/content/c7ed9668-e316-4672-99fb-2bffa841b7e8

Tax cuts reversed

Wednesday, October 19th, 2022

Jeremy Hunt, the new chancellor, has confirmed that nearly all the tax measures announced in the Growth Plan on September 23rd are to be reversed.

Only the cuts to stamp duty paid on house purchases and the scrapping of the National Insurance hike will continue.

However, all the tax measures that have not started parliamentary legislation will not go ahead.

What has been scrapped?

  • A planned 1p reduction in the basic rate of income tax. This is to be put on hold indefinitely, until economic circumstances allow it to be cut. The Government had announced that it would be cut from 20p in the pound to 19p in the pound in April 2023 – a year earlier than had originally been intended
  • Cuts to dividend tax rates – the 1.25% increase in dividend tax rates was to have been reversed from April 6th
  • The reversal of off-payroll working reforms, also known as IR35 rule changes
  • VAT-free shopping for non-UK visitors
  • The freeze on alcohol duty rates
  • This comes shortly after the government u-turned on its plans to scrap the top income tax rate and freeze corporation tax.

What else has been announced?

Energy Price Guarantee scheme scaled back

The Energy Price Guarantee, which would have capped typical household energy bills at £2,500 annually until 2024, will now only last until April next year.

Mr Hunt also confirmed that the Treasury will lead a review into how households and businesses can be helped with energy bills beyond this point.

The Chancellor said the objective is to “design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned whilst ensuring enough support for those in need”.

Furthermore, he stated that any support for businesses will be targeted to those most affected, with a focus on incentivising energy efficiency.

Public spending cuts on the way

Mr Hunt announced that all government departments will have to “redouble their efforts” to find savings and that “some areas of spending will need to be cut”.

However, he insisted that its “priority in making the difficult decisions that lie ahead will always be the most vulnerable”, and added he remains “extremely confident” about the UK’s long-term economic prospects.

What happens next?

The market response to the Chancellor’s statement was broadly positive, with the pound rising and government borrowing costs falling following his announcement.

Mr Hunt will then deliver a full Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on October 31st, which will be accompanied by a forecast from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.

However, the Chancellor’s statement means nearly every element of the Mini Budget has now been scrapped.

The fallout from the Growth Plan announcement on September 23rd has already led to previous Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng being sacked, and there is now widespread speculation about the political future of Prime Minister Liz Truss, who took office only last month.

Autumn Mini Budget Overview 2022

Wednesday, September 28th, 2022

So what was it? A ‘fiscal event’? A Mini Budget? Or a full-blown Budget from a new Chancellor determined to take the UK in a very different direction from previous occupants of 11 Downing Street? As we will see in more detail below, reactions to the measures introduced by Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday September 23rd were sharply divided. 

Saturday morning’s papers, though, were quick to deliver their verdict. ‘At last! A True Tory Budget’ was the Mail’s headline. ‘We’ve got the courage to bet big on Britain,’ said the Express. The gambling theme was repeated in other papers. ‘Kwarteng gambles on biggest tax cuts in half a century’ was the Telegraph headline, while the Times went with ‘Truss’s great tax gamble’.

Irrespective of whether it was a ‘fiscal event’ or a full Budget, there was a lot to digest. We’ve detailed all the measures below, but first, let’s look at the background to Kwasi Kwarteng’s radical measures. 

The political background 

In July 2019, Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister. Liz Truss, MP for South West Norfolk and a supporter of Johnson in his leadership campaign, was appointed International Trade Secretary. Lower down the ministerial ladder, Kwasi Kwarteng, the MP for Spelthorne, was made a Minister of State at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. 

Five months later, Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to an 80-seat majority in the General Election on a promise to ‘Get Brexit Done’. His position appeared to be impregnable, but as we now know, he was forced to resign in the summer of 2022. The subsequent battle to replace him eventually came down to a straight fight between Liz Truss and former Chancellor – and early favourite – Rishi Sunak. Eventually, Truss won out, after endearing herself to Conservative members with a series of commitments to cut taxes. 

She became Prime Minister on September 6th and, with the Queen’s death just two days later. Many people had expected Sunak’s successor, Nadhim Zahawi, to continue as Chancellor, but instead, Liz Truss opted for Kwasi Kwarteng – widely regarded as being on the right of the Conservative Party and a staunch advocate of tax cuts. 

The death of the Queen, the national period of mourning and the approaching party conference season meant that the timetable for the fiscal event was shortened. Budget speeches are normally delivered on Wednesday lunchtime, after Prime Minister’s Questions. This time, Kwarteng delivered his package of measures on Friday morning, ahead of the Labour Party Conference in the last week of September and the Conservative Conference the following week. 

The economic background 

‘Neither a borrower nor a lender be.’ Many of you will know that famous quotation from Hamlet, but over the last two years, the UK Government has had little choice other than to be a borrower – and to be a borrower on an almost unprecedented scale.

A document published by the House of Commons library revealed that borrowing for 2020/21 was £167 billion higher than had been planned before the pandemic. Total spending to deal with coronavirus was put in the range of £310 billion to £410 billion. 

That document, however, was optimistic about the cost of servicing the extra borrowing. Published in March 2022, it said: “The cost of borrowing is currently very low [but the public finances are] vulnerable to an increase in these costs.”

This, of course, is exactly what has happened. The rising cost of energy and the global supply chain crisis has caused inflation on a scale not seen for years: in order to try to keep a lid on inflation, central banks have increased interest rates – which, in turn, have increased the cost of servicing the UK’s debt. 

And there was more debt to come. Within days of becoming PM, Liz Truss had committed to borrowing ‘up to £150 billion’ in order to cap a typical household’s energy bill at £2,500 a year until 2024. “Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures,” she said. 

Meanwhile, the cost of servicing the equally extraordinary borrowing was rising. On September 22nd, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.5% to 2.25% and conceded that the ‘UK may already be in recession’. 

Rising rates meant that the Government borrowed £11.8 billion in August, almost twice as much as the Treasury forecasters had expected, as high inflation pushed interest payments to an August record. The inflation rate for August – at 9.9% – was down very slightly on July’s 10.1%, but there are plenty of forecasters ready to suggest that it could go much higher next year. Despite the action on energy bills, UK consumer confidence slipped into negative territory for the first time since 2020. 

The tax cuts – including the changes to stamp duty, cuts in income tax and the reversal of the rise in National Insurance – had been well trailed in advance. Supporters of the Chancellor were looking forward to the speech, while critics were already sharpening their knives, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies warning that “the tax cuts gamble will make [the UK’s] debt unsustainable”.

The speech 

Opening remarks

Kwasi Kwarteng began by acknowledging that the cost of energy is the issue that is “worrying British people the most”, and described the recent support for households and businesses as “one of the most significant interventions the British state has ever made”.

However, he stressed that high energy costs are not the only challenge confronting the UK, as growth is “not as high as it should be”. Mr Kwarteng therefore pledged “a new approach for a new era”, with lower taxes at the heart of his strategy.

Personal taxation and allowances

What

A cut in the basic rate of income tax, from 20% to 19%.

When 

April 2023.

Comment

The planned reduction in the basic rate of income tax to 19p has been brought forward by one year. The Government says this means more than 31 million people will get £170 more per year on average, and works out to a tax cut of over £5 billion a year. Mr Kwarteng says this also makes the UK’s income tax system one of the most competitive in the world.

There will be a one-year transitional period for Relief at Source (RAS) pension schemes to allow people to continue to claim tax relief at 20%. That means that even though the income tax rate will be 19%, personal pension contributions will get 20% tax relief at source.

 

What

Top rate of income tax scrapped and single higher rate to be introduced.

When 

April 2023.

Comment

The highest rate of income tax currently stands at 45% and is paid by anyone who earns more than £150,000 a year. But from April 2023, a single higher rate of income tax of 40% will be introduced, a move that Mr Kwarteng believes will simplify the tax system, make Britain more competitive, reward work and incentivise growth. 

 

What

Increase in dividend tax rates to be reversed.

When 

April 2023.

Comment

The 1.25% increase in dividend tax rates is to be reversed, which will benefit 2.6 million dividend taxpayers with average savings of £345 in 2023-24. Additional rate taxpayers will also benefit from the scrapping of the additional rate of dividend tax. The Government believes the move will support entrepreneurs and investors, which can in turn drive economic growth.

 

What

Stamp duty cut.

When 

September 23rd 2022.

Comment

The threshold at which Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) must be paid in England and Northern Ireland has been doubled to £250,000 for all home purchases. 

The threshold at which first-time buyers are liable to pay SDLT, meanwhile, has increased from £300,000 to £425,000, and the value of the property on which first-time buyers can claim relief goes up from £500,000 to £625,000.

Mr Kwarteng says the measures take 200,000 people “out of paying stamp duty altogether” and will be a permanent change to the SDLT system.

Business investment and taxation

What

Corporation tax increase to be cancelled.

When 

Immediately.

Comment

The Government had planned to increase corporation tax from 19% to 25% in April 2023, but this will no longer go ahead.

Mr Kwarteng says this will give the UK the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20 and plough almost £19 billion a year back into the economy. This, he maintains, gives businesses more money to “reinvest, create jobs, increase wages or pay the dividends that support our pensions”.

 

What

Removing caps on bankers’ bonuses.

When 

Immediately.

Comment

The cap on bonuses bankers are allowed to receive on top of their salaries, which was introduced by the European Union in 2014 after the global financial crisis, has been scrapped.

Under the previous system, bankers’ bonuses could not be higher than twice their annual salary without the agreement of shareholders. However, the Government believes that payment in bonuses “aligns the incentives of individuals with those of the bank”, which can in turn support economic growth.

Although the move is likely to prove controversial, Mr Kwarteng has insisted that the bonus cap “never capped total remuneration”, and instead pushed up the basic salaries of bankers or drove activity outside Europe.

In his statement, he argued that a strong UK economy depends on a strong financial services sector, with global banks creating jobs, paying taxes and investing “here in London, not Paris, not Frankfurt, not New York”.

 

What

New investment zones.

When 

No dates confirmed.

Comment

The Government will liberalise planning rules in designated sites, releasing land and accelerating development. This will be accompanied by tax cuts, with enhanced tax relief for structures and buildings, 100% first year allowance on qualifying investments in plant and machinery, and no stamp duty payments on purchases of land and buildings for commercial or new residential development. 

Newly occupied business premises will be exempt from business rates, and if a company residing in the designated site hires a new employee to work in the tax site for at least 60% of the time, they will pay no National Insurance on the first £50,270 that they earn.

 

What

Simplifying IR35 rules.

When 

April 2023.

Comment

Workers who provide services via an intermediary will be responsible for determining their employment status and paying the appropriate amount of National Insurance and tax.

The Government believes reforms to off-payroll working introduced in 2017 and 2021 have added “unnecessary complexity and cost for many businesses”. As a result, it hopes this latest change will “free up time and money for businesses that engage contractors that could be put towards other priorities.” 

 

What

Energy Bill Relief Scheme.

When 

Immediately (announced earlier this month).

Comment

The Government will provide businesses and non-domestic energy users, including schools, hospitals and charities, with a discount on energy prices for six months.

 

National insurance

What

1.25% rise in National Insurance to be reversed.

When 

November 6th 2022.

Comment

The Government is reducing Class 1 and Class 4 National Insurance contributions (NICs) by 1.25 percentage points from November and cancelling the introduction of the Health and Social Care Levy. This was set to be introduced in April 2023, and proved to be one of the most controversial policy announcements of Boris Johnson’s premiership, as the Government had pledged not to increase NI in its election manifesto. 

However, Liz Truss spent much of the recent leadership contest pledging to reverse this policy. The Government says the move enables almost 28 million people to keep an extra £330, on average, of their money next year.

 

The cost of living crisis

What

Energy Price Guarantee (EPG).

When 

Immediately (announced earlier this month).

Comment

The Government has pledged to limit the unit price that consumers pay for gas and electricity, which means typical annual household bills will be £2,500 for the next two years. This is on top of the previously announced plan to give all households £400 towards their bills this winter.

As part of the Energy Price Guarantee, the Government will also cover environmental and social costs, as well as green levies, currently included in domestic energy bills, for two years.

Other measures

Alcohol duty

What

Planned duty increase for beer, cider, wine and spirits scrapped.

When 

February 1st 2023.

Comment

Duty rates for beer, cider, wine and spirits will be frozen, which the Government believes will support businesses and help consumers with the cost of living.

An 18-month transitional measure for wine duty has also been announced, while draught relief will be extended to cover smaller kegs of 20 litres and above, which the Government says will help smaller breweries.

 

VAT-free Shopping

What

VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors.

When 

No date confirmed.

Comment

A digital VAT-free shopping scheme, designed to boost the high street and create jobs in retail and tourism, will be introduced. Under the scheme, overseas visitors to the UK will be able to purchase items VAT-free. Although no date has yet been confirmed, Mr Kwarteng said he wants to see this put in place as soon as possible.

 

Universal Credit

What

Tighter rules on Universal Credit.

When 

January 2023.

Comment

Universal Credit claimants who earn less than the equivalent of 15 hours a week at the National Living Wage will have to regularly meet with their work coach and actively take steps to increase their earnings, or risk having their benefits cut. The Government believes this will bring a further 120,000 people into the more intensive work search regime.

 

Industrial Action

What

Trade unions will have to put pay offers to members.

When 

No date confirmed.

Comment

The Government will legislate to require trade unions to put pay offers to a member vote, so that strikes can only be called once negotiations have genuinely broken down. Legislation to ensure Minimum Service Levels can be put in place for transport services, so that strike action does not prevent people getting to and from work, will also be introduced. 

 

Infrastructure planning legislation 

What

New laws to simplify infrastructure planning rules.

When 

No date confirmed.

Comment

Legislation to simplify the planning system for major infrastructure projects is to be put forward, as the Government believes the existing process is “too slow and fragmented”.

Mr Kwarteng said the time it takes to get consent for “nationally significant projects is getting slower, not quicker, while our international competitors forge ahead”.

He therefore wants to streamline assessments, appraisals, consultations and regulations, and review the Government’s business case process to speed up decision-making.

A list of infrastructure projects to be prioritised for acceleration has been published, covering sectors such as telecoms, energy and transport.

 

Reforms to the pension charge cap  

What

Pension Charge Cap no longer to apply to well-designed performance fees.

When 

No date confirmed.

Comment

Draft regulations to remove well-designed performance fees from the occupational defined contribution pension charge cap will be brought forward.

The Government believes this will unlock pension fund investment into UK assets and innovative, high growth businesses, and ensure savers benefit from higher potential investment returns.

 

Reaction to the speech 

Reaction to the Chancellor’s speech was – as we have already seen – sharply divided. Many right-wing commentators could not contain their excitement, while those on the left derided it as a ‘Budget without numbers’ and one that would benefit ‘only the rich’. 

Writing in the Telegraph, Allister Heath described Kwarteng’s statement as “the best Budget I have ever heard a Chancellor deliver, by a massive margin”. He added that “hardcore, unapologetic liberal Toryism is back”, before praising the Chancellor for his commitment to “a flatter and simpler tax system”. 

Across the political divide, the Resolution Foundation accused Kwarteng of ‘blowing the Budget’ with half of his planned tax cuts going to ‘the richest 5%’. The £45 billion package, the Foundation said, would ‘raise interest rates and see an additional £411 billion of borrowing over five years’.

There was plenty of reaction from other think tanks and lobbying groups too. Unsurprisingly, the Taxpayers’ Alliance called the speech ‘the most tax-friendly Budget in recent memory’. Adding a cautionary note on excessive spending, Chief Executive John O’Connell wrote: “Taxpayers will be delighted with a Budget that eases the burden on their bottom lines and promises a growth game changer.” 

The Adam Smith Institute was similarly enthusiastic, saying that the Mini Budget was ‘the first step to getting the British economy back on track’. Head of Research Daniel Pryor said: “The planned increase in Corporation Tax would have hammered business, choked off investment and reduced workers’ wages. It’s also encouraging to see the Chancellor understands the importance of capital allowances.” 

Meanwhile, Director of the Institute for Economic Affairs Mark Littlewood commented: “This isn’t a trickle-down Budget, it’s a boost-up Budget. It’s refreshing to hear a Chancellor talk passionately about the importance of economic growth, rather than rattling off a string of state spending pledges.”

Not everyone, though, was reaching for the champagne. The Resolution Foundation added the note that growth in the short term ‘is in Putin’s hands rather than ours’.

Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson welcomed the cuts to stamp duty, but drew worrying parallels with Anthony Barber’s 1972 ‘dash for growth’ Budget, which ‘ended in disaster’ and was now ‘acknowledged as the worst of modern times’. 

The left-wing Momentum organisation’s take on the announcements was even simpler, and used just six words: “The Tories have declared class war.” 

What about the markets? There are, of course, many other factors acting on the FTSE-100 index of leading shares and the pound, but the pound went into free fall after the Chancellor’s statement, and by the following Monday morning, it had fallen to a record low against the dollar.

Conclusions 

Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t waste time in his first major speech as Chancellor. He spoke for just 25 minutes, starting by dealing with the cost of energy and then proceeded to rattle off a string of tax cuts. 

“We won’t apologise,” he said in conclusion, as he dismissed the ‘tax and spend’ approach of previous governments, both Conservative and Labour. “Our entire focus is on making the UK more competitive in a fiercely competitive global economy.” 

Depending on your political standpoint, you may regard the statement as “the best Conservative Budget since 1986”, as Nigel Farage described it, or perhaps you feel nervous about the Chancellor’s decision to ‘gamble on the biggest tax cuts in half a century’.

What is certain is that the new PM and her Chancellor will not be changing course. As Mr Kwarteng sat down, your immediate reaction might have been to wonder what further tax cuts he would introduce in his March Budget. According to the Sunday papers, we may not have to wait even that long. ‘Truss plans to cut taxes again in the New Year’ was the Sunday Telegraph headline, and the Express was rather more forthright with ‘Chancellor: You ain’t seen nothing yet’.

Former Chancellor George Osborne always made the same point in his Budget speeches: whatever measures he took, the UK could easily be blown off course by factors beyond his control. Right now, that “fiercely competitive global economy” includes the conflict in Ukraine, increasing tensions between the US and China, energy prices that are far higher than they were a year ago, increasing base rates to counter inflation and seemingly endless supply chain problems. 

So the world – and the global economy – may look very different by the time Kwasi Kwarteng rises to present his March Budget. Rest assured though, that whatever happens in the next six months, we will – as always – keep you fully up to date with all the news, and how it impacts your savings, investments and long-term financial planning.

Will the cost of living crisis mean we all go back to cash?

Wednesday, September 21st, 2022

As the writer Mark Twain supposedly said, “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” Could 2022 be the year that cash says the same thing?

Many clients reading this will remember the traditional method of budgeting used by their parents or grandparents: a pot for gas, a pot for electricity, one for food, another for clothes. Maybe even one for holidays.

Others will remember the ‘Christmas Club’ run by the local shop. The idea was simple, you put a little bit away each week and when Christmas came, the money was there.

Then, of course, people stopped getting paid in cash. Wages and salaries were transferred into your bank account. We started paying with cards, tapping our pin in and then going contactless. Then we started banking on our phones…

‘Cash is dying out,’ said the pundits. And the evidence was there for all to see.

Lloyds Bank recently reported that 90% of payments for eating out are now contactless with the number having risen significantly since the pandemic and the lifting of the limit on contactless payments. The proportion is similar at the supermarket checkout. Surely it was only a matter of time before we followed Sweden, a country that expects to be a cashless society by next year.

Except that cash is making a comeback. The Post Office recently reported that its branches handled a record £801m in cash withdrawals in August, up 8% on the previous month and 20% on the figure from July of last year. The total amount of cash deposited and withdrawn at over £3.3bn was the highest in the Post Office’s 360 year history; clear evidence that local businesses are being paid in cash.

The strains imposed by the cost of living crisis means that cash is anything but ‘dead’ with people turning to it to help with their budgeting.

The Post Office said: “We are seeing more and more people relying on cash as a tried and trusted way to manage a budget.”

You might question why? After all, there are plenty of apps on your phone that will allow you to create digital ‘pots’ for gas, electricity, clothes and even Christmas.

Perhaps the answer lies in another of your grandmother’s sayings: “If you can get credit it’s free. If you pay by cash it’s very expensive.”

There’s a clear psychological element to using cash: if we tap our card, we know it’s not free but it’s very definitely not the same as counting out the money and handing it over.

‘Look after the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves’ as the old saying has it. Our gas and electricity bills may no longer be in pennies but plenty of us are going back to a budgeting method that has stood the test of time and that our grandmothers would approve of.

Sources

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62576024

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/08/cash-comeback-cost-of-living-crisis-post-office

https://blog.ingenico.com/posts/2022/01/the-nordic-countries-ready-to-say-goodbye-to-cash.html

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/press-releases/2022/lloyds-bank/almost-9-in-10-card-payments-contactless.html#:~:text=Over%2090%25%20of%20consumers%20turn,pandemic%2C%20supported%20by%20limit%20increases.

 

The outlook for the UK’s small businesses

Wednesday, September 21st, 2022

The new Prime Minister’s in-tray is overflowing. Inflation, the cost of living crisis, war in Ukraine, US/China tensions but buried under all that paperwork is, hopefully, another sheet of A4. One that’s absolutely vital to the country’s economic health, that will play a crucial part in our eventual economic recovery; the UK’s small businesses.

Of late, the small business glass,  at least as far as the headline writers have been concerned, has been resolutely half-empty.

At the beginning of last month, City AM announced that the UK’s small businesses were ‘scrapping hiring plans’ in the face of the current economic uncertainty. Small businesses were facing a ‘£50bn time bomb’ due to rising energy prices: up to a third of them could ‘go bust’ without access to finance and, of course, the Bank of England would inevitably raise interest rates again.

How important are small businesses to the UK economy? According to the Federation of Small Businesses website, there were 5.5m small businesses in the UK at the start of 2021, accounting for 60% of the employment and 50% of the turnover in the UK’s private sector. Employment in business with up to 49 staff was 12.9m, almost half of the total employment.

So the importance of small businesses to the UK economy cannot be overstated. That’s why their future is just as important as energy bills, inflation and foreign affairs. Germany has just introduced a €65bn (£56bn) package to ease the threat of soaring energy costs, including tax breaks for energy intensive businesses.

We can probably expect to see the same from the UK’s new Chancellor but he needs to remember that ‘energy intensive’ means the local pub and the B&B as much as it means heavy manufacturing.

We are privileged to number some outstanding small businesses among our clients. The owners and directors of those businesses are enterprising, hard-working and determined. They are also, despite the best efforts of the headline writers, cautiously optimistic. They can rest assured that we will do whatever we can to support them with good, consistent long-term financial planning.

Let us hope that the new Government plays its part as well, recognising the importance of small businesses to the UK economy and doing everything it can to help them lead the UK’s eventual recovery.

Teach your kids good financial habits as they head to uni

Wednesday, September 14th, 2022

You’ve worked hard to be able to afford to send your child to university, and now the time has come for them to fly the nest and strike out on their own.

So naturally, you’ll want them to start their adult life with good financial habits. Here are a few bits of wisdom you could share with your son or daughter before they head off to uni, so they can truly fulfil their potential and make the most of their university experience.

Stay on top of what’s coming in and out

It’s really important that students keep a close eye on how much money is going into their account, such as student loans and any parental support that you might be providing. At the same time, they need to closely monitor what’s going out, such as council tax payments, utility bills, rent, food and mobile phone bills.

Once your son or daughter knows how much is going in and out of their bank account, they need to know how to budget, so they don’t get through their money too quickly, turn to credit cards and slip into debt, or – heaven forbid – get in touch with you asking for more funds to tide them over.

If your child gets into the habit of keeping track of their income and outgoings, they’ll have a clear idea of what’s left to spend on other things that enhance the university experience, such as going out with friends, buying new gadgets and enjoying trips and holidays.

There are plenty of apps to help them with budgeting, such as HyperJar Kids, Rooster Money, GoHenry and Gimi, so that’s a good place to start, along with simply writing all their spending down on paper.

Budgeting is vital at the best of times, but as the cost of living crisis bites, it’s more important than ever that your child knows how much money they’ve got and where it’s going.

According to a recent study by The Student Room, half of young people starting university in September are worried about affording things, while just 15 per cent don’t believe they’re at all affected by the rising cost of living.

Significantly, half of those polled said they felt financial skills, such as budgeting, were the most important thing missing from the school curriculum. That certainly suggests young people want some guidance and tips on how to manage their money, so they might be particularly receptive to any help you can provide as they prepare to live independently for the first time.

Teach them to become savvy shoppers

As your son or daughter prepares to get used to managing on a limited budget, it would be well worth teaching them a few tips to save pounds and pennies where they can. For example, do they know where to find discount coupons or that it’s cheaper to buy own-brand products in supermarkets rather than expensive branded goods?

At the same time, it would be well worth making sure they’re aware of how the cost of just a few small purchases can quickly add up. For instance, if they spend £4 on a coffee every weekday morning, that adds up to £20 a week, or £80 a month. Encouraging them to look at their finances in this way could help them to look again at their spending habits and make changes, which would then free up cash that could be much better used or even put into savings.

Work pays

Many students get part-time work to help them make ends meet during term time, which helps them afford the lifestyle they want to enjoy at university, as well as gain new, transferable skills that can bolster their CVs.

By encouraging your son or daughter to do the same, you could help them have a much more fulfilling university experience, and at the same, they’d gain invaluable skills that would set them up well for their future career.

Encourage them to speak about money

Money can be something of a taboo subject, but this unwillingness to talk about an issue we all have to deal with helps no-one. After all, your son or daughter might find themselves in a flat or house share with other students, and they need to feel confident raising financial issues if and when it becomes necessary.

At the same time, they should feel it’s okay to ask for help if they find themselves in serious difficulties, without any sense of shame or embarrassment. Again, this could make a big difference later on, as taking away the taboo around money will encourage young people to seek out the help and advice they may need in the future, perhaps from a friend, relative or a professional financial adviser.

You want your son or daughter to flourish as they begin their adult lives in earnest by living away from home for the first time, and we understand that. But good financial management is critical to making that happen, so they can make the most of these very special years and also understand the responsibilities that come with adult life.

Sources

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/the-student-room-tv-licence-nus-nhs-london-b2145836.html  

https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/25/five-things-all-teenagers-need-to-know-about-money-17241318/